Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.8: Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA factors for individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2024 through 2063: Create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 50th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 50th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201913.9112.85-1.06
273
0.000.000.00
202013.9412.87-1.07
260
0.000.000.00
202114.0912.90-1.19
245
0.000.000.00
202214.2312.92-1.31
229
0.000.000.00
202314.4012.94-1.46
213
0.000.000.00
202414.5912.97-1.62
197
-0.00-0.000.00
202514.7812.99-1.80
180
-0.00-0.000.00
202614.9813.11-1.87
163
-0.00-0.000.00
202715.1913.13-2.05
147
-0.01-0.000.01
202815.4213.17-2.25
130
-0.01-0.000.01
202915.6113.19-2.42
114
-0.02-0.000.02
203015.7813.20-2.58
98
-0.03-0.000.03
203115.9313.21-2.71
81
-0.04-0.000.04
203216.0513.22-2.83
64
-0.06-0.000.06
203316.1513.23-2.92
47
-0.08-0.000.08
203416.2213.24-2.98
30
-0.11-0.010.10
203516.2613.24-3.02
12
-0.14-0.010.13
203616.2913.25-3.04
----
-0.17-0.010.16
203716.3113.25-3.06
----
-0.21-0.010.19
203816.3213.25-3.07
----
-0.24-0.010.23
203916.3213.25-3.06
----
-0.29-0.020.27
204016.2913.25-3.03
----
-0.33-0.020.31
204116.2413.25-2.99
----
-0.37-0.020.35
204216.1713.25-2.92
----
-0.42-0.020.39
204316.0913.25-2.84
----
-0.47-0.030.44
204416.0113.24-2.76
----
-0.52-0.030.49
204515.9213.24-2.68
----
-0.57-0.030.53
204615.8313.23-2.60
----
-0.62-0.040.58
204715.7513.23-2.52
----
-0.67-0.040.63
204815.6813.23-2.45
----
-0.73-0.040.69
204915.6013.22-2.38
----
-0.78-0.050.74
205015.5213.22-2.31
----
-0.84-0.050.79
205115.4613.22-2.24
----
-0.90-0.050.85
205215.4013.21-2.19
----
-0.96-0.060.90
205315.3513.21-2.14
----
-1.02-0.060.96
205415.3113.21-2.10
----
-1.08-0.061.01
205515.2713.21-2.06
----
-1.14-0.071.07
205615.2413.21-2.03
----
-1.20-0.071.13
205715.2213.21-2.01
----
-1.26-0.081.19
205815.2013.21-1.99
----
-1.33-0.081.25
205915.1913.21-1.98
----
-1.39-0.081.31
206015.1813.21-1.97
----
-1.45-0.091.36
206115.1713.21-1.96
----
-1.51-0.091.42
206215.1613.21-1.95
----
-1.57-0.091.48
206315.1513.21-1.94
----
-1.63-0.101.53
206415.1513.21-1.94
----
-1.69-0.101.59
206515.1513.21-1.93
----
-1.75-0.111.64
206615.1513.21-1.93
----
-1.81-0.111.70
206715.1513.21-1.93
----
-1.87-0.111.75
206815.1513.21-1.94
----
-1.92-0.121.81
206915.1513.21-1.94
----
-1.98-0.121.86
207015.1613.21-1.95
----
-2.03-0.121.91
207115.1713.22-1.95
----
-2.08-0.131.96
207215.1713.22-1.95
----
-2.13-0.132.00
207315.1713.22-1.95
----
-2.18-0.132.05
207415.1713.22-1.95
----
-2.22-0.142.09
207515.1713.22-1.95
----
-2.26-0.142.12
207615.1613.22-1.94
----
-2.30-0.142.16
207715.1513.22-1.93
----
-2.33-0.142.19
207815.1213.22-1.91
----
-2.36-0.142.22
207915.0913.22-1.88
----
-2.38-0.152.24
208015.0613.21-1.85
----
-2.40-0.152.26
208115.0213.21-1.81
----
-2.42-0.152.27
208214.9913.21-1.78
----
-2.44-0.152.29
208314.9513.21-1.74
----
-2.45-0.152.30
208414.9213.21-1.71
----
-2.46-0.152.31
208514.8913.20-1.68
----
-2.47-0.152.32
208614.8613.20-1.66
----
-2.48-0.152.33
208714.8413.20-1.64
----
-2.49-0.152.33
208814.8313.20-1.63
----
-2.49-0.152.34
208914.8313.20-1.63
----
-2.50-0.152.35
209014.8413.20-1.64
----
-2.51-0.152.36
209114.8713.20-1.66
----
-2.52-0.152.37
209214.8913.20-1.69
----
-2.53-0.162.38
209314.9313.21-1.72
----
-2.54-0.162.39
209414.9713.21-1.76
----
-2.56-0.162.40


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2019-2093 15.49% 13.75% -1.74%
2035
-1.11% -0.07% 1.04%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.