Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.13: For retired worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2026 (excluding disabled workers), add a new bend point at the wage-indexed equivalent of the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution minus $100 (for 2015 eligibility) and change the PIA factors to 95/32/15/5. Also move the current-law first bend point from the wage-indexed equivalent of $926 in 2019 to $1,177 in 2019. Phase this provision in over 10 years (2026-2035). The phase-in would work on a weighted-average basis: 90% of CL formula + 10% of proposal formula for 2026, 80% of CL formula + 20% of proposal formula for 2027, and so on.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201913.9112.85-1.06
273
0.000.000.00
202013.9412.87-1.07
260
0.000.000.00
202114.0912.90-1.19
245
0.000.000.00
202214.2312.92-1.31
229
0.000.000.00
202314.4012.94-1.46
213
0.000.000.00
202414.5912.97-1.62
197
0.000.000.00
202514.7912.99-1.80
180
0.000.000.00
202614.9913.11-1.88
163
0.000.00-0.00
202715.1913.13-2.06
147
0.000.00-0.00
202815.4313.17-2.26
130
0.000.00-0.00
202915.6313.19-2.44
114
0.000.00-0.00
203015.8113.20-2.61
97
0.010.00-0.01
203115.9713.22-2.76
80
0.010.00-0.01
203216.1213.23-2.89
63
0.010.00-0.01
203316.2413.24-3.01
46
0.010.00-0.01
203416.3413.25-3.09
28
0.010.00-0.01
203516.4113.25-3.16
9
0.010.00-0.01
203616.4713.26-3.21
----
0.010.00-0.01
203716.5213.26-3.26
----
0.000.00-0.00
203816.5613.27-3.30
----
-0.00-0.000.00
203916.5913.27-3.32
----
-0.01-0.000.01
204016.6013.27-3.32
----
-0.02-0.000.02
204116.5813.27-3.31
----
-0.03-0.000.03
204216.5513.27-3.28
----
-0.04-0.000.04
204316.5013.27-3.23
----
-0.05-0.000.05
204416.4613.27-3.19
----
-0.06-0.000.06
204516.4113.27-3.15
----
-0.07-0.000.07
204616.3713.26-3.10
----
-0.08-0.000.08
204716.3313.26-3.07
----
-0.09-0.010.09
204816.3013.26-3.04
----
-0.10-0.010.10
204916.2713.26-3.01
----
-0.11-0.010.10
205016.2513.26-2.99
----
-0.12-0.010.11
205116.2313.26-2.97
----
-0.13-0.010.12
205216.2313.26-2.97
----
-0.13-0.010.13
205316.2313.26-2.97
----
-0.14-0.010.13
205416.2413.27-2.97
----
-0.15-0.010.14
205516.2613.27-2.99
----
-0.15-0.010.14
205616.2913.27-3.01
----
-0.16-0.010.15
205716.3213.27-3.04
----
-0.16-0.010.15
205816.3613.28-3.08
----
-0.17-0.010.16
205916.4113.28-3.12
----
-0.17-0.010.16
206016.4513.29-3.17
----
-0.17-0.010.16
206116.5013.29-3.21
----
-0.18-0.010.17
206216.5513.29-3.26
----
-0.18-0.010.17
206316.6013.30-3.31
----
-0.18-0.010.17
206416.6513.30-3.35
----
-0.19-0.010.18
206516.7113.31-3.40
----
-0.19-0.010.18
206616.7613.31-3.45
----
-0.19-0.010.18
206716.8213.31-3.51
----
-0.19-0.010.18
206816.8813.32-3.56
----
-0.20-0.010.18
206916.9413.32-3.61
----
-0.20-0.010.19
207017.0013.33-3.67
----
-0.20-0.010.19
207117.0513.33-3.72
----
-0.20-0.010.19
207217.1013.33-3.77
----
-0.20-0.010.19
207317.1513.34-3.81
----
-0.20-0.010.19
207417.1913.34-3.85
----
-0.20-0.010.19
207517.2313.34-3.88
----
-0.20-0.010.19
207617.2513.35-3.91
----
-0.21-0.010.19
207717.2713.35-3.92
----
-0.21-0.010.19
207817.2813.35-3.93
----
-0.21-0.010.20
207917.2713.35-3.92
----
-0.21-0.010.20
208017.2513.35-3.91
----
-0.21-0.010.20
208117.2313.35-3.89
----
-0.21-0.010.20
208217.2113.35-3.87
----
-0.21-0.010.20
208317.1913.34-3.85
----
-0.21-0.010.20
208417.1713.34-3.82
----
-0.21-0.010.20
208517.1413.34-3.80
----
-0.21-0.010.20
208617.1213.34-3.78
----
-0.21-0.010.20
208717.1113.34-3.77
----
-0.21-0.010.20
208817.1113.34-3.77
----
-0.21-0.010.20
208917.1213.34-3.78
----
-0.22-0.010.20
209017.1413.34-3.80
----
-0.22-0.010.20
209117.1713.34-3.83
----
-0.22-0.010.20
209217.2113.35-3.87
----
-0.22-0.010.20
209317.2613.35-3.91
----
-0.22-0.010.20
209417.3013.35-3.95
----
-0.22-0.010.21


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2019-2093 16.49% 13.80% -2.68%
2035
-0.11% -0.01% 0.10%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.