Description of Proposed Provision:
B4.5: For retired and disabled workers, reduce the maximum number of dropout years to 4 for workers newly eligible in 2021, to 3 for workers newly eligible in 2022, and to 2 for workers newly eligible in 2023 and later.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201913.9112.85-1.06
273
0.000.000.00
202013.9412.87-1.07
260
0.000.000.00
202114.0812.90-1.19
245
-0.00-0.000.00
202214.2212.92-1.30
229
-0.01-0.000.01
202314.3812.94-1.44
214
-0.01-0.000.01
202414.5612.97-1.59
197
-0.03-0.000.03
202514.7412.98-1.76
181
-0.04-0.000.04
202614.9313.11-1.82
165
-0.06-0.000.06
202715.1113.13-1.98
149
-0.08-0.000.08
202815.3313.17-2.16
133
-0.11-0.000.10
202915.5013.18-2.31
117
-0.13-0.010.12
203015.6513.20-2.45
101
-0.15-0.010.15
203115.7913.21-2.58
85
-0.18-0.010.17
203215.9113.22-2.69
69
-0.20-0.010.19
203316.0113.23-2.78
52
-0.22-0.010.21
203416.0813.23-2.85
36
-0.24-0.010.23
203516.1413.24-2.90
19
-0.26-0.010.25
203616.1813.24-2.94
1
-0.28-0.010.27
203716.2213.25-2.97
----
-0.30-0.020.28
203816.2513.25-3.00
----
-0.32-0.020.30
203916.2713.25-3.02
----
-0.33-0.020.32
204016.2713.26-3.01
----
-0.35-0.020.33
204116.2513.26-2.99
----
-0.36-0.020.34
204216.2213.25-2.96
----
-0.37-0.020.35
204316.1713.25-2.92
----
-0.39-0.020.37
204416.1213.25-2.87
----
-0.40-0.020.38
204516.0813.25-2.83
----
-0.41-0.020.39
204616.0313.25-2.78
----
-0.42-0.020.40
204716.0013.25-2.75
----
-0.43-0.020.41
204815.9713.25-2.72
----
-0.44-0.020.42
204915.9413.25-2.69
----
-0.45-0.020.42
205015.9113.25-2.67
----
-0.46-0.020.43
205115.9013.25-2.65
----
-0.46-0.030.44
205215.9013.25-2.65
----
-0.47-0.030.44
205315.9013.25-2.65
----
-0.47-0.030.45
205415.9113.25-2.66
----
-0.48-0.030.45
205515.9313.25-2.67
----
-0.48-0.030.46
205615.9513.25-2.70
----
-0.49-0.030.46
205715.9913.26-2.73
----
-0.49-0.030.46
205816.0313.26-2.77
----
-0.49-0.030.47
205916.0813.27-2.81
----
-0.50-0.030.47
206016.1313.27-2.86
----
-0.50-0.030.47
206116.1813.27-2.90
----
-0.50-0.030.48
206216.2313.28-2.95
----
-0.51-0.030.48
206316.2813.28-3.00
----
-0.51-0.030.48
206416.3313.28-3.05
----
-0.51-0.030.48
206516.3813.29-3.10
----
-0.51-0.030.48
206616.4413.29-3.15
----
-0.52-0.030.49
206716.5013.30-3.20
----
-0.52-0.030.49
206816.5513.30-3.25
----
-0.52-0.030.49
206916.6113.30-3.31
----
-0.52-0.030.49
207016.6713.31-3.36
----
-0.52-0.030.49
207116.7313.31-3.41
----
-0.53-0.030.50
207216.7713.32-3.46
----
-0.53-0.030.50
207316.8213.32-3.50
----
-0.53-0.030.50
207416.8613.32-3.54
----
-0.53-0.030.50
207516.9013.33-3.57
----
-0.53-0.030.50
207616.9313.33-3.60
----
-0.53-0.030.50
207716.9413.33-3.61
----
-0.53-0.030.50
207816.9513.33-3.62
----
-0.53-0.030.50
207916.9413.33-3.61
----
-0.53-0.030.50
208016.9313.33-3.60
----
-0.53-0.030.50
208116.9113.33-3.58
----
-0.53-0.030.50
208216.8913.33-3.56
----
-0.53-0.030.50
208316.8713.33-3.54
----
-0.53-0.030.50
208416.8513.33-3.52
----
-0.53-0.030.50
208516.8313.32-3.50
----
-0.53-0.030.50
208616.8113.32-3.49
----
-0.53-0.030.50
208716.8013.32-3.48
----
-0.53-0.030.50
208816.8013.32-3.48
----
-0.53-0.030.50
208916.8113.32-3.49
----
-0.53-0.030.50
209016.8313.32-3.50
----
-0.53-0.030.50
209116.8613.33-3.53
----
-0.53-0.030.50
209216.9013.33-3.57
----
-0.53-0.030.50
209316.9413.33-3.61
----
-0.53-0.030.50
209416.9913.33-3.66
----
-0.53-0.030.50


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2019-2093 16.22% 13.79% -2.43%
2036
-0.38% -0.02% 0.36%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.