Description of Proposed Provision:
E2.3: Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2020 and later, and apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to all earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum. Create a new bend point at the current-law taxable maximum with a 3 percent formula factor applying above the new bend point.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201913.9112.85-1.06
273
0.000.000.00
202013.9415.111.17
260
0.002.242.24
202114.0815.251.17
260
-0.002.362.36
202214.2315.261.03
260
-0.002.342.34
202314.4015.270.87
259
0.012.332.33
202414.6015.300.70
256
0.012.332.31
202514.8115.310.50
253
0.022.332.30
202615.0215.440.42
249
0.032.322.29
202715.2415.450.22
245
0.042.322.28
202815.4915.490.00
240
0.062.322.26
202915.7015.51-0.19
235
0.072.322.25
203015.8915.53-0.37
231
0.092.322.24
203116.0715.54-0.53
226
0.102.322.22
203216.2215.55-0.67
222
0.112.332.21
203316.3615.57-0.79
217
0.132.332.20
203416.4715.58-0.89
213
0.142.332.19
203516.5515.58-0.97
209
0.152.332.18
203616.6215.59-1.03
205
0.162.332.17
203716.6915.60-1.09
200
0.182.342.16
203816.7515.61-1.14
195
0.192.342.15
203916.8015.61-1.19
190
0.202.342.14
204016.8215.62-1.20
184
0.212.342.14
204116.8215.62-1.21
179
0.212.342.13
204216.8115.62-1.19
174
0.222.352.13
204316.7815.62-1.16
169
0.232.352.12
204416.7515.62-1.13
164
0.232.352.12
204516.7215.62-1.10
159
0.242.352.11
204616.6915.62-1.07
154
0.242.352.11
204716.6715.62-1.05
149
0.252.352.11
204816.6515.62-1.03
144
0.252.352.11
204916.6415.62-1.01
140
0.252.362.10
205016.6215.63-1.00
135
0.252.362.10
205116.6215.63-0.99
130
0.262.362.10
205216.6215.63-0.99
126
0.262.362.10
205316.6315.63-1.00
121
0.262.362.10
205416.6515.64-1.01
116
0.262.362.10
205516.6715.64-1.03
111
0.262.362.10
205616.7115.64-1.06
105
0.262.362.10
205716.7515.65-1.10
100
0.272.362.10
205816.7915.65-1.14
94
0.272.362.10
205916.8415.66-1.19
88
0.272.362.10
206016.9015.66-1.24
82
0.272.372.10
206116.9515.67-1.28
75
0.272.372.10
206217.0115.67-1.33
68
0.272.372.09
206317.0615.68-1.38
61
0.272.372.09
206417.1215.68-1.43
54
0.272.372.09
206517.1715.69-1.49
46
0.282.372.09
206617.2315.69-1.54
38
0.282.372.09
206717.2915.70-1.59
29
0.282.372.09
206817.3515.70-1.65
21
0.282.372.09
206917.4215.71-1.71
11
0.282.372.09
207017.4815.71-1.76
2
0.282.382.09
207117.5315.72-1.82
----
0.282.382.09
207217.5915.72-1.86
----
0.282.382.09
207317.6315.73-1.91
----
0.292.382.09
207417.6815.73-1.95
----
0.292.382.09
207517.7215.74-1.98
----
0.292.382.09
207617.7515.74-2.01
----
0.292.382.09
207717.7715.74-2.02
----
0.292.382.09
207817.7715.75-2.03
----
0.292.382.09
207917.7715.75-2.02
----
0.292.392.09
208017.7515.75-2.01
----
0.292.392.10
208117.7315.75-1.99
----
0.292.392.10
208217.7115.75-1.97
----
0.292.392.10
208317.6915.75-1.94
----
0.292.392.10
208417.6715.75-1.92
----
0.292.392.10
208517.6515.75-1.90
----
0.292.392.10
208617.6315.75-1.88
----
0.292.392.10
208717.6215.75-1.87
----
0.292.392.11
208817.6215.75-1.87
----
0.292.402.11
208917.6315.75-1.88
----
0.292.402.11
209017.6515.75-1.90
----
0.292.402.11
209117.6815.76-1.92
----
0.292.402.11
209217.7215.76-1.96
----
0.292.402.11
209317.7715.76-2.00
----
0.292.402.11
209417.8215.77-2.05
----
0.292.402.11


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2019-2093 16.81% 16.14% -0.67%
2070
0.21% 2.32% 2.12%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.