Description of Proposed Provision:
B4.1: Increase the number of years used to calculate benefits for retirees and survivors (but not for disabled workers) from 35 to 38, phased in over the years 2018-2022.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2021 | 14.00 | 12.99 | -1.01 | 245 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2022 | 14.23 | 13.02 | -1.21 | 231 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2023 | 14.51 | 13.05 | -1.46 | 216 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2024 | 14.78 | 13.08 | -1.70 | 200 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2025 | 15.03 | 13.10 | -1.93 | 184 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2026 | 15.29 | 13.13 | -2.16 | 167 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2027 | 15.51 | 13.15 | -2.37 | 150 | -0.10 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2028 | 15.73 | 13.16 | -2.57 | 133 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2029 | 15.93 | 13.17 | -2.75 | 116 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2030 | 16.11 | 13.19 | -2.92 | 99 | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2031 | 16.27 | 13.20 | -3.07 | 81 | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2032 | 16.41 | 13.21 | -3.21 | 63 | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2033 | 16.53 | 13.22 | -3.32 | 44 | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2034 | 16.62 | 13.22 | -3.40 | 25 | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2035 | 16.69 | 13.23 | -3.46 | 5 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2036 | 16.73 | 13.23 | -3.50 | ---- | -0.25 | -0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2037 | 16.76 | 13.23 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.27 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2038 | 16.75 | 13.23 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.28 | -0.02 | 0.26 | ||
| 2039 | 16.71 | 13.23 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.29 | -0.02 | 0.27 | ||
| 2040 | 16.67 | 13.23 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.30 | -0.02 | 0.28 | ||
| 2041 | 16.61 | 13.23 | -3.38 | ---- | -0.30 | -0.02 | 0.29 | ||
| 2042 | 16.55 | 13.23 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.29 | ||
| 2043 | 16.49 | 13.22 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2044 | 16.43 | 13.22 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.33 | -0.02 | 0.31 | ||
| 2045 | 16.38 | 13.22 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.33 | -0.02 | 0.31 | ||
| 2046 | 16.34 | 13.22 | -3.12 | ---- | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2047 | 16.30 | 13.21 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.33 | ||
| 2048 | 16.27 | 13.21 | -3.05 | ---- | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.33 | ||
| 2049 | 16.23 | 13.21 | -3.02 | ---- | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.33 | ||
| 2050 | 16.21 | 13.21 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2051 | 16.19 | 13.21 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2052 | 16.19 | 13.21 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2053 | 16.20 | 13.21 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2054 | 16.22 | 13.21 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2055 | 16.24 | 13.22 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2056 | 16.28 | 13.22 | -3.06 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2057 | 16.32 | 13.22 | -3.10 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2058 | 16.36 | 13.22 | -3.13 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2059 | 16.40 | 13.23 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2060 | 16.44 | 13.23 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2061 | 16.49 | 13.23 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2062 | 16.53 | 13.24 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2063 | 16.58 | 13.24 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2064 | 16.63 | 13.24 | -3.38 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2065 | 16.67 | 13.25 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2066 | 16.72 | 13.25 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2067 | 16.77 | 13.25 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2068 | 16.83 | 13.26 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2069 | 16.88 | 13.26 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2070 | 16.93 | 13.26 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2071 | 16.97 | 13.26 | -3.71 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2072 | 17.01 | 13.27 | -3.74 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2073 | 17.05 | 13.27 | -3.78 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2074 | 17.08 | 13.27 | -3.81 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2075 | 17.10 | 13.27 | -3.83 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2076 | 17.12 | 13.28 | -3.84 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2077 | 17.12 | 13.28 | -3.85 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2078 | 17.12 | 13.28 | -3.85 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2079 | 17.12 | 13.28 | -3.84 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2080 | 17.11 | 13.27 | -3.84 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2081 | 17.11 | 13.27 | -3.83 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2082 | 17.11 | 13.27 | -3.83 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2083 | 17.11 | 13.27 | -3.84 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2084 | 17.13 | 13.28 | -3.85 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2085 | 17.15 | 13.28 | -3.88 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2086 | 17.18 | 13.28 | -3.90 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2087 | 17.22 | 13.28 | -3.94 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2088 | 17.26 | 13.28 | -3.97 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2089 | 17.30 | 13.29 | -4.01 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2090 | 17.35 | 13.29 | -4.06 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2091 | 17.39 | 13.29 | -4.10 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2092 | 17.44 | 13.29 | -4.14 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.38% | 13.82% | -2.56% | 2035 | -0.29% | -0.02% | 0.27% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.