Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.1: Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2018, multiply the 32 and 15 percent PIA factors each year by 0.987. Stop reductions after 2048, when the factors reach 21 percent and 10 percent, respectively.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.69 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.84 | 12.96 | -0.88 | 259 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2021 | 14.00 | 12.99 | -1.01 | 245 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2022 | 14.23 | 13.02 | -1.20 | 231 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2023 | 14.50 | 13.05 | -1.45 | 216 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2024 | 14.76 | 13.08 | -1.68 | 200 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2025 | 15.01 | 13.10 | -1.91 | 185 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.09 | ||
| 2026 | 15.25 | 13.13 | -2.12 | 168 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2027 | 15.46 | 13.14 | -2.31 | 152 | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2028 | 15.65 | 13.16 | -2.49 | 135 | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2029 | 15.82 | 13.17 | -2.65 | 118 | -0.25 | -0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2030 | 15.97 | 13.18 | -2.79 | 102 | -0.30 | -0.01 | 0.28 | ||
| 2031 | 16.10 | 13.19 | -2.90 | 85 | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2032 | 16.20 | 13.20 | -3.00 | 68 | -0.41 | -0.02 | 0.39 | ||
| 2033 | 16.27 | 13.20 | -3.06 | 50 | -0.47 | -0.02 | 0.45 | ||
| 2034 | 16.31 | 13.21 | -3.10 | 32 | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2035 | 16.32 | 13.21 | -3.11 | 14 | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2036 | 16.32 | 13.21 | -3.10 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.03 | 0.64 | ||
| 2037 | 16.28 | 13.21 | -3.07 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2038 | 16.21 | 13.21 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.04 | 0.77 | ||
| 2039 | 16.11 | 13.20 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.88 | -0.04 | 0.84 | ||
| 2040 | 16.00 | 13.20 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2041 | 15.88 | 13.19 | -2.69 | ---- | -1.03 | -0.05 | 0.98 | ||
| 2042 | 15.75 | 13.19 | -2.57 | ---- | -1.11 | -0.06 | 1.05 | ||
| 2043 | 15.62 | 13.18 | -2.44 | ---- | -1.18 | -0.06 | 1.12 | ||
| 2044 | 15.50 | 13.17 | -2.32 | ---- | -1.26 | -0.06 | 1.20 | ||
| 2045 | 15.37 | 13.17 | -2.21 | ---- | -1.34 | -0.07 | 1.28 | ||
| 2046 | 15.25 | 13.16 | -2.09 | ---- | -1.43 | -0.07 | 1.35 | ||
| 2047 | 15.14 | 13.16 | -1.98 | ---- | -1.51 | -0.08 | 1.43 | ||
| 2048 | 15.02 | 13.15 | -1.87 | ---- | -1.60 | -0.08 | 1.51 | ||
| 2049 | 14.91 | 13.15 | -1.76 | ---- | -1.68 | -0.09 | 1.59 | ||
| 2050 | 14.80 | 13.14 | -1.66 | ---- | -1.77 | -0.09 | 1.67 | ||
| 2051 | 14.71 | 13.14 | -1.57 | ---- | -1.85 | -0.10 | 1.75 | ||
| 2052 | 14.62 | 13.13 | -1.49 | ---- | -1.93 | -0.10 | 1.83 | ||
| 2053 | 14.55 | 13.13 | -1.43 | ---- | -2.01 | -0.11 | 1.91 | ||
| 2054 | 14.49 | 13.13 | -1.37 | ---- | -2.10 | -0.11 | 1.99 | ||
| 2055 | 14.45 | 13.12 | -1.32 | ---- | -2.17 | -0.11 | 2.06 | ||
| 2056 | 14.41 | 13.12 | -1.29 | ---- | -2.25 | -0.12 | 2.13 | ||
| 2057 | 14.38 | 13.12 | -1.26 | ---- | -2.32 | -0.12 | 2.20 | ||
| 2058 | 14.35 | 13.12 | -1.23 | ---- | -2.39 | -0.13 | 2.26 | ||
| 2059 | 14.33 | 13.12 | -1.21 | ---- | -2.45 | -0.13 | 2.32 | ||
| 2060 | 14.32 | 13.12 | -1.20 | ---- | -2.51 | -0.13 | 2.38 | ||
| 2061 | 14.31 | 13.12 | -1.19 | ---- | -2.57 | -0.14 | 2.43 | ||
| 2062 | 14.30 | 13.12 | -1.18 | ---- | -2.62 | -0.14 | 2.48 | ||
| 2063 | 14.30 | 13.12 | -1.18 | ---- | -2.67 | -0.14 | 2.52 | ||
| 2064 | 14.31 | 13.12 | -1.19 | ---- | -2.71 | -0.14 | 2.57 | ||
| 2065 | 14.31 | 13.12 | -1.19 | ---- | -2.75 | -0.15 | 2.61 | ||
| 2066 | 14.32 | 13.12 | -1.20 | ---- | -2.79 | -0.15 | 2.64 | ||
| 2067 | 14.34 | 13.12 | -1.22 | ---- | -2.83 | -0.15 | 2.68 | ||
| 2068 | 14.36 | 13.12 | -1.23 | ---- | -2.86 | -0.15 | 2.71 | ||
| 2069 | 14.38 | 13.13 | -1.25 | ---- | -2.90 | -0.16 | 2.74 | ||
| 2070 | 14.40 | 13.13 | -1.27 | ---- | -2.93 | -0.16 | 2.77 | ||
| 2071 | 14.42 | 13.13 | -1.29 | ---- | -2.95 | -0.16 | 2.79 | ||
| 2072 | 14.44 | 13.13 | -1.31 | ---- | -2.98 | -0.16 | 2.82 | ||
| 2073 | 14.45 | 13.13 | -1.32 | ---- | -3.00 | -0.16 | 2.84 | ||
| 2074 | 14.47 | 13.13 | -1.33 | ---- | -3.01 | -0.16 | 2.85 | ||
| 2075 | 14.47 | 13.13 | -1.34 | ---- | -3.03 | -0.16 | 2.87 | ||
| 2076 | 14.48 | 13.13 | -1.34 | ---- | -3.04 | -0.16 | 2.88 | ||
| 2077 | 14.47 | 13.13 | -1.34 | ---- | -3.05 | -0.16 | 2.89 | ||
| 2078 | 14.47 | 13.13 | -1.33 | ---- | -3.06 | -0.16 | 2.89 | ||
| 2079 | 14.46 | 13.13 | -1.32 | ---- | -3.06 | -0.17 | 2.90 | ||
| 2080 | 14.45 | 13.13 | -1.31 | ---- | -3.06 | -0.17 | 2.90 | ||
| 2081 | 14.44 | 13.13 | -1.31 | ---- | -3.07 | -0.17 | 2.90 | ||
| 2082 | 14.44 | 13.13 | -1.30 | ---- | -3.07 | -0.17 | 2.90 | ||
| 2083 | 14.44 | 13.13 | -1.31 | ---- | -3.07 | -0.17 | 2.91 | ||
| 2084 | 14.45 | 13.13 | -1.32 | ---- | -3.08 | -0.17 | 2.91 | ||
| 2085 | 14.47 | 13.13 | -1.33 | ---- | -3.08 | -0.17 | 2.92 | ||
| 2086 | 14.49 | 13.13 | -1.36 | ---- | -3.09 | -0.17 | 2.92 | ||
| 2087 | 14.52 | 13.14 | -1.38 | ---- | -3.10 | -0.17 | 2.93 | ||
| 2088 | 14.55 | 13.14 | -1.41 | ---- | -3.11 | -0.17 | 2.94 | ||
| 2089 | 14.59 | 13.14 | -1.45 | ---- | -3.11 | -0.17 | 2.95 | ||
| 2090 | 14.62 | 13.14 | -1.48 | ---- | -3.12 | -0.17 | 2.95 | ||
| 2091 | 14.66 | 13.15 | -1.52 | ---- | -3.13 | -0.17 | 2.96 | ||
| 2092 | 14.70 | 13.15 | -1.55 | ---- | -3.14 | -0.17 | 2.97 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.05% | 13.75% | -1.29% | 2035 | -1.62% | -0.08% | 1.54% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.