Description of Proposed Provision:
B4.3: For the OASI and DI computation of the PIA, gradually reduce the maximum number of drop-out years from 5 to 0, phased in over the years 2019-2027.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.01 | 12.99 | -1.01 | 245 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2022 | 14.24 | 13.02 | -1.21 | 231 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2023 | 14.51 | 13.05 | -1.46 | 216 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2024 | 14.78 | 13.08 | -1.69 | 200 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2025 | 15.03 | 13.10 | -1.93 | 184 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2026 | 15.27 | 13.13 | -2.14 | 168 | -0.10 | -0.00 | 0.10 | ||
| 2027 | 15.48 | 13.15 | -2.34 | 151 | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2028 | 15.68 | 13.16 | -2.52 | 134 | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2029 | 15.86 | 13.17 | -2.69 | 117 | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2030 | 16.02 | 13.18 | -2.83 | 100 | -0.25 | -0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2031 | 16.16 | 13.19 | -2.97 | 83 | -0.29 | -0.01 | 0.27 | ||
| 2032 | 16.28 | 13.20 | -3.07 | 65 | -0.33 | -0.02 | 0.31 | ||
| 2033 | 16.37 | 13.21 | -3.16 | 47 | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2034 | 16.44 | 13.22 | -3.23 | 29 | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.39 | ||
| 2035 | 16.49 | 13.22 | -3.27 | 10 | -0.44 | -0.02 | 0.42 | ||
| 2036 | 16.51 | 13.22 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.02 | 0.45 | ||
| 2037 | 16.51 | 13.22 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.02 | 0.48 | ||
| 2038 | 16.48 | 13.22 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2039 | 16.43 | 13.22 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2040 | 16.37 | 13.22 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.03 | 0.56 | ||
| 2041 | 16.30 | 13.22 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.03 | 0.59 | ||
| 2042 | 16.22 | 13.21 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.03 | 0.61 | ||
| 2043 | 16.14 | 13.21 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.03 | 0.63 | ||
| 2044 | 16.07 | 13.20 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.03 | 0.65 | ||
| 2045 | 16.01 | 13.20 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.03 | 0.67 | ||
| 2046 | 15.95 | 13.20 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2047 | 15.90 | 13.20 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2048 | 15.85 | 13.20 | -2.66 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.04 | 0.72 | ||
| 2049 | 15.81 | 13.19 | -2.62 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.04 | 0.74 | ||
| 2050 | 15.77 | 13.19 | -2.58 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2051 | 15.75 | 13.19 | -2.56 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.04 | 0.77 | ||
| 2052 | 15.73 | 13.19 | -2.54 | ---- | -0.82 | -0.04 | 0.78 | ||
| 2053 | 15.73 | 13.19 | -2.54 | ---- | -0.84 | -0.04 | 0.79 | ||
| 2054 | 15.74 | 13.19 | -2.55 | ---- | -0.85 | -0.04 | 0.80 | ||
| 2055 | 15.76 | 13.19 | -2.57 | ---- | -0.86 | -0.04 | 0.81 | ||
| 2056 | 15.79 | 13.20 | -2.59 | ---- | -0.87 | -0.04 | 0.82 | ||
| 2057 | 15.82 | 13.20 | -2.62 | ---- | -0.88 | -0.04 | 0.83 | ||
| 2058 | 15.86 | 13.20 | -2.65 | ---- | -0.88 | -0.05 | 0.84 | ||
| 2059 | 15.89 | 13.20 | -2.69 | ---- | -0.89 | -0.05 | 0.85 | ||
| 2060 | 15.93 | 13.21 | -2.72 | ---- | -0.90 | -0.05 | 0.85 | ||
| 2061 | 15.97 | 13.21 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.90 | -0.05 | 0.86 | ||
| 2062 | 16.01 | 13.21 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.91 | -0.05 | 0.86 | ||
| 2063 | 16.06 | 13.22 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.91 | -0.05 | 0.87 | ||
| 2064 | 16.10 | 13.22 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.92 | -0.05 | 0.87 | ||
| 2065 | 16.14 | 13.22 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.92 | -0.05 | 0.88 | ||
| 2066 | 16.19 | 13.22 | -2.97 | ---- | -0.93 | -0.05 | 0.88 | ||
| 2067 | 16.24 | 13.23 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.93 | -0.05 | 0.88 | ||
| 2068 | 16.29 | 13.23 | -3.06 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.05 | 0.89 | ||
| 2069 | 16.34 | 13.23 | -3.10 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.05 | 0.89 | ||
| 2070 | 16.38 | 13.24 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.05 | 0.89 | ||
| 2071 | 16.43 | 13.24 | -3.19 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2072 | 16.46 | 13.24 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2073 | 16.50 | 13.24 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2074 | 16.53 | 13.25 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2075 | 16.55 | 13.25 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2076 | 16.56 | 13.25 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2077 | 16.57 | 13.25 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2078 | 16.57 | 13.25 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2079 | 16.56 | 13.25 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2080 | 16.55 | 13.25 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2081 | 16.55 | 13.25 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2082 | 16.55 | 13.25 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2083 | 16.56 | 13.25 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2084 | 16.57 | 13.25 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2085 | 16.59 | 13.25 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2086 | 16.62 | 13.25 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2087 | 16.65 | 13.25 | -3.40 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2088 | 16.69 | 13.26 | -3.44 | ---- | -0.97 | -0.05 | 0.92 | ||
| 2089 | 16.73 | 13.26 | -3.47 | ---- | -0.97 | -0.05 | 0.92 | ||
| 2090 | 16.78 | 13.26 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.97 | -0.05 | 0.92 | ||
| 2091 | 16.82 | 13.26 | -3.56 | ---- | -0.97 | -0.05 | 0.92 | ||
| 2092 | 16.87 | 13.27 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.98 | -0.05 | 0.93 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.04% | 13.81% | -2.23% | 2035 | -0.63% | -0.03% | 0.60% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.