Description of Proposed Provision:
B4.2: Increase the number of years used to calculate benefits for retirees and survivors (but not for disabled workers) from 35 to 40, phased in over the years 2019-2027.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201813.8112.64-1.17
288
0.000.000.00
201913.9512.87-1.08
272
-0.00-0.000.00
202014.1212.89-1.23
256
-0.00-0.000.00
202114.2712.92-1.35
240
-0.01-0.000.01
202214.4312.95-1.48
223
-0.01-0.000.01
202314.6012.96-1.64
206
-0.02-0.000.02
202414.7712.99-1.78
189
-0.03-0.000.03
202514.9413.01-1.93
172
-0.04-0.000.04
202615.1013.13-1.97
155
-0.06-0.000.06
202715.2813.15-2.13
139
-0.08-0.000.08
202815.4713.17-2.31
123
-0.11-0.010.10
202915.6513.18-2.47
107
-0.14-0.010.13
203015.8213.19-2.62
90
-0.17-0.010.16
203115.9613.20-2.76
74
-0.20-0.010.18
203216.0913.21-2.88
57
-0.23-0.010.21
203316.2013.22-2.97
40
-0.25-0.010.24
203416.2813.23-3.05
22
-0.28-0.020.27
203516.3413.24-3.10
4
-0.31-0.020.29
203616.3913.24-3.15
----
-0.34-0.020.32
203716.4213.24-3.18
----
-0.36-0.020.34
203816.4413.25-3.19
----
-0.39-0.020.36
203916.4313.25-3.18
----
-0.41-0.020.38
204016.4013.25-3.15
----
-0.43-0.030.40
204116.3613.25-3.12
----
-0.45-0.030.42
204216.3113.25-3.07
----
-0.46-0.030.44
204316.2513.24-3.01
----
-0.48-0.030.45
204416.2013.24-2.96
----
-0.50-0.030.47
204516.1513.24-2.91
----
-0.51-0.030.48
204616.1013.24-2.86
----
-0.53-0.030.50
204716.0613.24-2.82
----
-0.54-0.030.51
204816.0213.23-2.79
----
-0.55-0.030.52
204915.9913.23-2.76
----
-0.57-0.030.53
205015.9613.23-2.73
----
-0.58-0.030.54
205115.9513.23-2.71
----
-0.59-0.040.55
205215.9413.23-2.70
----
-0.60-0.040.56
205315.9413.23-2.70
----
-0.61-0.040.57
205415.9513.24-2.71
----
-0.61-0.040.58
205515.9713.24-2.73
----
-0.62-0.040.58
205616.0013.24-2.76
----
-0.63-0.040.59
205716.0313.24-2.79
----
-0.63-0.040.59
205816.0713.25-2.83
----
-0.64-0.040.60
205916.1213.25-2.86
----
-0.64-0.040.60
206016.1613.26-2.91
----
-0.65-0.040.61
206116.2113.26-2.95
----
-0.65-0.040.61
206216.2613.26-2.99
----
-0.65-0.040.61
206316.3113.27-3.04
----
-0.66-0.040.62
206416.3613.27-3.08
----
-0.66-0.040.62
206516.4113.27-3.13
----
-0.66-0.040.62
206616.4613.28-3.18
----
-0.66-0.040.62
206716.5213.28-3.23
----
-0.67-0.040.63
206816.5713.29-3.29
----
-0.67-0.040.63
206916.6313.29-3.34
----
-0.67-0.040.63
207016.6913.29-3.39
----
-0.68-0.040.63
207116.7413.30-3.44
----
-0.68-0.040.64
207216.7913.30-3.49
----
-0.68-0.040.64
207316.8313.30-3.53
----
-0.68-0.040.64
207416.8713.31-3.56
----
-0.68-0.040.64
207516.9013.31-3.59
----
-0.68-0.040.64
207616.9313.31-3.61
----
-0.69-0.040.64
207716.9413.31-3.62
----
-0.69-0.040.64
207816.9413.31-3.63
----
-0.68-0.040.64
207916.9313.31-3.62
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208016.9213.31-3.61
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208116.9113.31-3.60
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208216.8913.31-3.58
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208316.8813.31-3.57
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208416.8613.31-3.55
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208516.8513.31-3.55
----
-0.68-0.040.63
208616.8513.31-3.54
----
-0.67-0.040.63
208716.8613.31-3.55
----
-0.67-0.040.63
208816.8713.31-3.56
----
-0.67-0.040.63
208916.8913.31-3.58
----
-0.67-0.040.63
209016.9213.31-3.61
----
-0.68-0.040.63
209116.9613.32-3.64
----
-0.68-0.040.64
209217.0013.32-3.68
----
-0.68-0.040.64
209317.0513.32-3.72
----
-0.68-0.040.64


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2018-2092 16.23% 13.82% -2.41%
2035
-0.46% -0.03% 0.43%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.