Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.8: Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2026, create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers and gradually reduce all PIA factors except for the 90 percent factor. By 2059: a) the 32 percent PIA factor below the new bend point reduces to 30 percent; b) the 32 percent PIA factor above the new bend point reduces to 10 percent; and c) the 15 percent PIA factor reduces to 5 percent.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201913.9112.85-1.06
273
0.000.000.00
202013.9412.87-1.07
260
0.000.000.00
202114.0912.90-1.19
245
0.000.000.00
202214.2312.92-1.31
229
0.000.000.00
202314.4012.94-1.46
213
0.000.000.00
202414.5912.97-1.62
197
0.000.000.00
202514.7912.99-1.80
180
0.000.000.00
202614.9913.11-1.88
163
-0.00-0.000.00
202715.1913.13-2.06
147
-0.00-0.000.00
202815.4313.17-2.25
130
-0.00-0.000.00
202915.6213.19-2.43
114
-0.01-0.000.01
203015.7913.20-2.59
97
-0.01-0.000.01
203115.9513.22-2.73
81
-0.02-0.000.02
203216.0813.23-2.85
64
-0.03-0.000.03
203316.1913.24-2.96
46
-0.04-0.000.04
203416.2713.24-3.03
29
-0.05-0.000.05
203516.3313.25-3.08
11
-0.07-0.000.07
203616.3613.25-3.11
----
-0.09-0.000.09
203716.4013.26-3.14
----
-0.12-0.010.11
203816.4213.26-3.16
----
-0.15-0.010.14
203916.4213.26-3.16
----
-0.18-0.010.17
204016.4013.26-3.14
----
-0.21-0.010.20
204116.3613.26-3.10
----
-0.25-0.010.23
204216.3013.26-3.05
----
-0.29-0.020.27
204316.2313.26-2.98
----
-0.33-0.020.31
204416.1513.25-2.90
----
-0.37-0.020.35
204516.0713.25-2.82
----
-0.41-0.020.39
204615.9913.24-2.75
----
-0.46-0.030.44
204715.9113.24-2.67
----
-0.51-0.030.48
204815.8413.24-2.60
----
-0.57-0.030.53
204915.7613.24-2.53
----
-0.62-0.030.59
205015.6913.23-2.46
----
-0.68-0.040.64
205115.6313.23-2.40
----
-0.73-0.040.69
205215.5713.23-2.34
----
-0.80-0.040.75
205315.5113.23-2.29
----
-0.86-0.050.81
205415.4613.22-2.24
----
-0.92-0.050.87
205515.4213.22-2.20
----
-0.99-0.060.93
205615.3913.22-2.16
----
-1.06-0.061.00
205715.3613.22-2.14
----
-1.12-0.061.06
205815.3313.22-2.11
----
-1.19-0.071.13
205915.3113.22-2.09
----
-1.27-0.071.19
206015.2913.22-2.07
----
-1.34-0.081.26
206115.2713.22-2.05
----
-1.41-0.081.33
206215.2613.22-2.04
----
-1.48-0.081.39
206315.2413.22-2.02
----
-1.55-0.091.46
206415.2313.22-2.01
----
-1.61-0.091.52
206515.2213.22-1.99
----
-1.68-0.101.58
206615.2113.22-1.99
----
-1.75-0.101.65
206715.2013.22-1.98
----
-1.81-0.101.70
206815.2113.22-1.98
----
-1.87-0.111.76
206915.2113.22-1.99
----
-1.93-0.111.81
207015.2113.22-1.99
----
-1.98-0.111.87
207115.2213.22-2.00
----
-2.03-0.121.91
207215.2213.23-2.00
----
-2.08-0.121.96
207315.2213.23-2.00
----
-2.12-0.122.00
207415.2313.23-2.00
----
-2.17-0.132.04
207515.2313.23-2.00
----
-2.20-0.132.08
207615.2213.23-1.99
----
-2.24-0.132.11
207715.2113.23-1.98
----
-2.27-0.132.14
207815.1913.23-1.96
----
-2.30-0.132.16
207915.1613.23-1.93
----
-2.32-0.142.18
208015.1313.22-1.90
----
-2.34-0.142.20
208115.0913.22-1.87
----
-2.35-0.142.21
208215.0613.22-1.84
----
-2.37-0.142.23
208315.0213.22-1.81
----
-2.38-0.142.24
208414.9913.22-1.77
----
-2.39-0.142.25
208514.9613.21-1.75
----
-2.40-0.142.26
208614.9313.21-1.72
----
-2.40-0.142.26
208714.9213.21-1.71
----
-2.41-0.142.27
208814.9113.21-1.70
----
-2.42-0.142.28
208914.9113.21-1.70
----
-2.42-0.142.28
209014.9213.21-1.71
----
-2.43-0.142.29
209114.9513.21-1.73
----
-2.44-0.142.30
209214.9813.21-1.76
----
-2.45-0.142.31
209315.0113.22-1.80
----
-2.46-0.142.32
209415.0513.22-1.83
----
-2.47-0.152.32


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2019-2093 15.57% 13.75% -1.82%
2035
-1.03% -0.06% 0.97%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.