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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Allow Voluntarily Individual Accounts

Details: Allow workers to voluntarily contribute an additional 2% of pay (up to the taxable maximum) to an individual account

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 22% 0% 0% 2%
Sex
Female 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Male 0% 24% 0% 0% 2%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 29% 0% 0% 2%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 26% 0% 0% 2%
Country of birth
United States 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
Other countries 0% 28% 0% 0% 2%
Age
60–69 0% 54% 0% 1% 3%
70–79 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 24% 0% 0% 2%
Divorced 0% 23% 0% 0% 2%
Widowed 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Never married 0% 26% 0% 0% 2%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 22% 0% 0% 2%
Bachelor 0% 26% 0% 0% 2%
Associate 0% 23% 0% 0% 2%
High school 0% 20% 0% 0% 1%
Less than high school 0% 20% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 22% 0% 0% 2%
In poverty 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 24% 0% 0% 2%
Second highest 0% 25% 0% 0% 2%
Middle 0% 25% 0% 0% 2%
Second lowest 0% 20% 0% 0% 1%
Lowest 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 27% 0% 0% 2%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 78% 0% 3% 9%
Sex
Female 0% 74% 0% 3% 9%
Male 0% 82% 0% 4% 10%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 81% 0% 3% 9%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 77% 0% 3% 9%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 78% 0% 3% 9%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 82% 0% 4% 10%
Country of birth
United States 0% 77% 0% 3% 9%
Other countries 0% 80% 0% 3% 9%
Age
60–69 0% 78% 0% 6% 12%
70–79 0% 92% 1% 5% 9%
80–89 0% 80% 0% 2% 5%
90 or older 0% 17% 0% 0% 1%
Marital status
Married 0% 80% 0% 4% 9%
Divorced 0% 80% 0% 4% 9%
Widowed 0% 69% 0% 2% 8%
Never married 0% 81% 0% 4% 10%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 83% 0% 5% 11%
Bachelor 0% 80% 0% 4% 10%
Associate 0% 80% 0% 3% 9%
High school 0% 74% 0% 3% 8%
Less than high school 0% 75% 0% 3% 8%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 78% 0% 3% 9%
In poverty 0% 66% 0% 2% 6%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 81% 0% 5% 11%
Second highest 0% 81% 0% 4% 10%
Middle 0% 80% 0% 4% 9%
Second lowest 0% 75% 0% 3% 8%
Lowest 0% 72% 0% 2% 7%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 88% 0% 4% 10%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 62% 0% 1% 7%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 54% 0% 1% 5%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 92% 2% 9% 15%
Sex
Female 0% 91% 1% 8% 15%
Male 0% 93% 3% 9% 16%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 89% 0% 8% 14%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 94% 2% 9% 16%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 90% 1% 8% 15%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 93% 2% 9% 17%
Country of birth
United States 0% 93% 2% 9% 16%
Other countries 0% 89% 0% 7% 15%
Age
60–69 0% 80% 0% 10% 17%
70–79 0% 98% 4% 10% 16%
80–89 0% 96% 2% 8% 14%
90 or older 0% 95% 1% 5% 10%
Marital status
Married 0% 90% 1% 9% 15%
Divorced 0% 93% 2% 9% 15%
Widowed 0% 96% 3% 8% 16%
Never married 0% 92% 2% 9% 16%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 95% 4% 11% 17%
Bachelor 0% 95% 3% 10% 17%
Associate 0% 92% 2% 9% 14%
High school 0% 90% 0% 8% 14%
Less than high school 0% 88% 0% 7% 13%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 92% 2% 9% 15%
In poverty 0% 89% 0% 5% 8%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 95% 4% 12% 18%
Second highest 0% 93% 3% 10% 16%
Middle 0% 92% 2% 9% 15%
Second lowest 0% 90% 1% 8% 13%
Lowest 0% 89% 0% 6% 11%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 99% 5% 10% 16%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 92% 1% 7% 14%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 71% 0% 2% 8%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $933 $2,943
Sex
Female 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $790 $2,381
Male 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,076 $3,286
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 93% 15% 16% 16% $38 $771 $2,114
White, non-Hispanic 0% 85% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,019 $3,057
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 91% 14% 16% 16% $19 $800 $2,476
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 91% 15% 16% 16% $19 $1,114 $3,286
Country of birth
United States 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $981 $2,924
Other countries 0% 91% 14% 16% 16% $9 $781 $3,028
Age
31–39 0% 99% 16% 16% 16% $200 $1,057 $2,848
40–49 0% 100% 16% 16% 16% $200 $1,143 $3,286
50–59 0% 100% 16% 16% 16% $219 $1,085 $3,238
60–69 0% 71% 0% 16% 16% $0 $609 $2,457
70 or older 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $962 $3,076
Divorced 0% 85% 0% 16% 16% $0 $904 $2,790
Widowed 0% 56% 0% 16% 16% $0 $209 $2,019
Never married 0% 96% 15% 16% 16% $104 $952 $2,819
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,695 $3,286
Bachelor 0% 86% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,371 $3,286
Associate 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $904 $2,286
High school 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $704 $1,885
Less than high school 0% 93% 15% 16% 16% $19 $609 $1,695
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 84% 0% 16% 16% $0 $2,247 $3,286
Second highest 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,495 $3,009
Middle 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,152 $2,085
Second lowest 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $914 $1,419
Lowest 0% 92% 15% 16% 16% $19 $352 $790
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 95% 16% 16% 16% $2,162 $2,943 $3,286
Second highest 0% 91% 16% 16% 16% $1,295 $1,571 $1,971
Middle 0% 90% 15% 16% 16% $809 $1,009 $1,228
Second lowest 0% 84% 0% 16% 16% $0 $561 $762
Lowest 0% 80% 0% 16% 17% $0 $133 $342
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,157 $3,807
Sex
Female 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $997 $3,061
Male 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,333 $4,189
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 92% 15% 16% 16% $22 $991 $2,753
White, non-Hispanic 0% 85% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,276 $3,916
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 89% 0% 16% 16% $0 $969 $3,004
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,510 $4,189
Country of birth
United States 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,202 $3,716
Other countries 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $991 $4,166
Age
31–39 0% 100% 16% 16% 16% $250 $1,328 $3,676
40–49 0% 100% 16% 16% 16% $262 $1,385 $4,189
50–59 0% 100% 16% 16% 16% $279 $1,385 $4,149
60–69 0% 72% 0% 16% 16% $0 $735 $3,283
70 or older 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,191 $3,921
Divorced 0% 85% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,140 $3,579
Widowed 0% 45% 0% 0% 16% $0 $0 $2,052
Never married 0% 93% 16% 16% 16% $57 $1,191 $3,830
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $2,006 $4,189
Bachelor 0% 82% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,653 $4,189
Associate 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,077 $2,861
High school 0% 90% 0% 16% 16% $0 $923 $2,456
Less than high school 0% 93% 15% 16% 16% $17 $758 $2,160
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 84% 0% 16% 16% $0 $3,015 $4,189
Second highest 0% 86% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,875 $3,790
Middle 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,442 $2,565
Second lowest 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,134 $1,721
Lowest 0% 92% 15% 16% 16% $17 $427 $957
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 94% 16% 16% 16% $2,753 $3,807 $4,189
Second highest 0% 89% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,978 $2,502
Middle 0% 89% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,271 $1,539
Second lowest 0% 84% 0% 16% 16% $0 $706 $963
Lowest 0% 81% 0% 16% 16% $0 $171 $438
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,460 $4,789
Sex
Female 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,238 $3,855
Male 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,681 $5,325
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 91% 15% 16% 16% $20 $1,272 $3,554
White, non-Hispanic 0% 83% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,603 $4,936
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,248 $3,735
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,910 $5,325
Country of birth
United States 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,501 $4,663
Other countries 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,282 $5,325
Age
31–39 0% 100% 16% 16% 16% $334 $1,698 $4,650
40–49 0% 100% 16% 16% 16% $317 $1,777 $5,325
50–59 0% 100% 16% 16% 16% $327 $1,756 $5,325
60–69 0% 72% 0% 16% 16% $0 $972 $4,261
70 or older 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,514 $4,875
Divorced 0% 84% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,415 $4,547
Widowed 0% 41% 0% 0% 16% $0 $0 $2,371
Never married 0% 91% 15% 16% 16% $13 $1,490 $4,909
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 83% 0% 16% 16% $0 $2,313 $5,325
Bachelor 0% 82% 0% 16% 16% $0 $2,094 $5,325
Associate 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,419 $3,602
High school 0% 89% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,166 $3,138
Less than high school 0% 92% 15% 16% 16% $20 $1,003 $2,780
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 83% 0% 16% 16% $0 $3,793 $5,325
Second highest 0% 86% 0% 16% 16% $0 $2,371 $4,759
Middle 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,862 $3,237
Second lowest 0% 87% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,429 $2,162
Lowest 0% 91% 15% 16% 16% $6 $521 $1,200
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 93% 16% 16% 16% $3,452 $4,789 $5,325
Second highest 0% 88% 0% 16% 16% $0 $2,510 $3,176
Middle 0% 89% 0% 16% 16% $0 $1,617 $1,971
Second lowest 0% 84% 0% 16% 16% $0 $893 $1,221
Lowest 0% 80% 0% 16% 16% $0 $197 $545
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 62% 0% 1% 4%
Sex
Female 0% 60% 0% 1% 4%
Male 0% 64% 0% 1% 4%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 65% 0% 1% 4%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 61% 0% 1% 4%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 64% 0% 1% 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 63% 0% 1% 4%
Country of birth
United States 0% 62% 0% 1% 4%
Other countries 0% 63% 0% 1% 4%
Age
60–69 0% 69% 0% 1% 5%
70–79 0% 80% 0% 2% 4%
80–89 0% 49% 0% 0% 2%
90 or older 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 66% 0% 1% 3%
Divorced 0% 62% 0% 1% 4%
Widowed 0% 50% 0% 0% 4%
Never married 0% 64% 0% 1% 5%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 64% 0% 1% 3%
Bachelor 0% 64% 0% 1% 4%
Associate 0% 65% 0% 1% 4%
High school 0% 59% 0% 1% 4%
Less than high school 0% 60% 0% 1% 4%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 63% 0% 1% 4%
In poverty 0% 50% 0% 0% 4%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 44% 0% 0% 2%
Second highest 0% 61% 0% 1% 3%
Middle 0% 69% 0% 1% 4%
Second lowest 0% 71% 0% 2% 5%
Lowest 0% 65% 0% 1% 5%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 68% 0% 1% 4%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 46% 0% 0% 4%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 66% 0% 1% 3%
Disabled worker only 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 87% 0% 3% 8%
Sex
Female 0% 86% 0% 3% 8%
Male 0% 87% 0% 3% 8%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 83% 0% 3% 8%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 89% 0% 3% 8%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 83% 0% 3% 9%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 85% 0% 2% 7%
Country of birth
United States 0% 88% 0% 3% 8%
Other countries 0% 81% 0% 3% 7%
Age
60–69 0% 76% 0% 3% 8%
70–79 0% 93% 1% 4% 8%
80–89 0% 91% 1% 3% 7%
90 or older 0% 78% 0% 2% 5%
Marital status
Married 0% 89% 0% 3% 7%
Divorced 0% 85% 0% 3% 8%
Widowed 0% 86% 0% 3% 9%
Never married 0% 83% 0% 3% 9%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 89% 0% 3% 7%
Bachelor 0% 89% 0% 3% 7%
Associate 0% 88% 0% 4% 8%
High school 0% 85% 0% 3% 8%
Less than high school 0% 79% 0% 3% 8%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 76% 0% 1% 3%
Second highest 0% 87% 0% 3% 6%
Middle 0% 91% 1% 4% 8%
Second lowest 0% 92% 1% 5% 9%
Lowest 0% 88% 0% 5% 10%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 91% 1% 3% 8%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 82% 0% 3% 8%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 89% 0% 3% 7%
Disabled worker only 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 4% 3,237 3,196 -41 -1%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,787 1,764 -22 -1%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,432 -18 -1%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 565 -5 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,781 -22 -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 9% 636 626 -10 -1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 5% 228 225 -2 -1%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,439 -33 -1%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 757 -7 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,454 -31 -2%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,308 -9 0%
80–89 3% 3% 381 381 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 467 -2 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,181 -25 -2%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 731 -8 -1%
Never married 16% 16% 821 817 -3 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 94 -2 -2%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 261 -1 0%
Associate 4% 4% 626 612 -14 -2%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,516 -17 -1%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 712 -5 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 99% 3,237 3,196 -41 -1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,223 -29 -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 567 -10 -1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 143 -1 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 10% 263 263 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,048 -261 -7%
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,729 -133 -7%
Male 4% 3% 1,447 1,319 -128 -8%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 5% 897 836 -60 -6%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,349 -122 -8%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 7% 679 624 -54 -8%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 238 -23 -8%
Country of birth
United States 4% 3% 2,260 2,067 -193 -8%
Other countries 6% 5% 1,048 981 -67 -6%
Age
60–69 5% 5% 1,277 1,178 -98 -7%
70–79 4% 3% 1,105 998 -106 -9%
80–89 3% 3% 734 680 -53 -7%
90 or older 3% 2% 193 191 -2 -1%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 426 -30 -6%
Divorced 6% 6% 948 858 -90 -9%
Widowed 5% 4% 750 690 -60 -8%
Never married 12% 11% 1,154 1,074 -80 -6%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 76 -14 -16%
Bachelor 2% 1% 280 264 -16 -5%
Associate 3% 3% 555 508 -46 -8%
High school 6% 5% 1,549 1,423 -126 -8%
Less than high school 11% 10% 834 777 -56 -6%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 92% 3,309 3,048 -261 -7%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,286 -214 -8%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 498 459 -38 -7%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 99 90 -8 -8%
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 212 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 2% 2,425 2,171 -253 -10%
Sex
Female 3% 2% 1,304 1,193 -110 -8%
Male 2% 2% 1,121 979 -142 -12%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 3% 769 681 -88 -11%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 914 -95 -9%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 392 357 -35 -8%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 2% 254 219 -34 -13%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,412 -173 -10%
Other countries 4% 4% 839 759 -79 -9%
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 721 -73 -9%
70–79 3% 2% 906 797 -109 -12%
80–89 3% 2% 585 530 -54 -9%
90 or older 2% 1% 139 124 -15 -11%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 249 -43 -14%
Divorced 3% 3% 613 559 -54 -8%
Widowed 3% 3% 473 430 -43 -9%
Never married 6% 6% 1,046 934 -112 -10%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 144 -11 -7%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 193 -25 -11%
Associate 2% 2% 405 351 -53 -13%
High school 4% 3% 1,033 937 -95 -9%
Less than high school 6% 6% 613 546 -67 -10%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 90% 2,425 2,171 -253 -10%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 2% 1,958 1,733 -225 -11%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 321 295 -25 -8%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 38 -2 -5%
Disabled worker only 3% 3% 105 105 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 27% 4% -2% 0% 0% 5% 127% 397% 9% 126% 394%
Sex
Female 33% 3% -3% 0% 0% 23% 159% 562% 24% 158% 553%
Male 21% 4% -2% 0% 0% 0% 105% 239% 2% 104% 236%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 38% 2% -3% 0% 0% 0% 141% 506% 8% 140% 504%
White, non-Hispanic 23% 4% -2% 0% 0% 14% 122% 359% 14% 122% 354%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 27% 2% -2% 0% 0% 0% 131% 410% 0% 130% 407%
All other races, non-Hispanic 38% 4% -4% 0% 0% 0% 132% 493% 4% 130% 484%
Country of birth
United States 22% 4% -2% 0% 0% 12% 123% 363% 12% 122% 358%
Other countries 43% 3% -4% -1% 0% 0% 144% 525% 6% 143% 517%
Highest education level
Graduate 27% 9% -2% 0% 0% 24% 113% 245% 24% 112% 240%
Bachelor 27% 6% -2% 0% 0% 25% 120% 324% 25% 120% 318%
Associate 25% 3% -2% 0% 0% 16% 127% 340% 17% 126% 336%
High school 26% 2% -2% 0% 0% 0% 133% 475% 5% 132% 471%
Less than high school 35% 1% -4% 0% 0% 0% 141% 718% 0% 140% 715%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 10% 11% -1% 0% 1% 36% 93% 136% 36% 94% 136%
Second highest 21% 2% -1% 0% 0% 21% 118% 175% 21% 117% 174%
Middle 30% 2% -2% 0% 0% 10% 140% 234% 10% 139% 231%
Second lowest 40% 1% -3% 0% 0% 23% 205% 444% 23% 202% 441%
Lowest 33% 2% -6% 0% 0% 0% 228% 1,369% 0% 225% 1,334%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 10% 11% 0% 0% 1% 40% 94% 134% 40% 94% 134%
Second highest 20% 2% -1% 0% 0% 23% 118% 173% 23% 117% 171%
Middle 31% 2% -2% 0% 0% 16% 141% 235% 16% 140% 233%
Second lowest 40% 1% -3% 0% 0% 18% 193% 403% 18% 191% 397%
Lowest 33% 2% -6% 0% 0% 0% 270% 1,384% 0% 264% 1,366%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 13% 12% -1% 0% 1% 47% 101% 169% 47% 101% 168%
Second highest 23% 2% -1% 0% 0% 33% 118% 237% 33% 118% 234%
Middle 29% 1% -2% 0% 0% 15% 136% 314% 15% 135% 310%
Second lowest 37% 1% -3% 0% 0% 9% 165% 490% 9% 163% 485%
Lowest 32% 1% -5% 0% 0% 0% 183% 1,028% 0% 181% 1,005%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 64% 10% -8% -2% 1% 0% 119% 375% 6% 116% 357%
Sex
Female 67% 9% -8% -3% 1% 0% 143% 532% 11% 138% 508%
Male 61% 10% -8% -2% 1% 0% 101% 258% 0% 100% 245%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 70% 5% -9% -4% 0% 0% 128% 410% 0% 124% 384%
White, non-Hispanic 63% 12% -7% -2% 1% 14% 118% 372% 15% 116% 356%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 66% 5% -9% -3% 0% 0% 111% 323% 0% 109% 309%
All other races, non-Hispanic 55% 14% -9% -2% 2% 0% 106% 410% 6% 104% 380%
Country of birth
United States 64% 11% -7% -2% 1% 7% 118% 342% 9% 116% 327%
Other countries 63% 6% -11% -4% 0% 0% 121% 521% 3% 117% 498%
Highest education level
Graduate 51% 22% -7% -1% 2% 21% 105% 271% 20% 104% 257%
Bachelor 55% 17% -7% -2% 2% 5% 107% 291% 12% 107% 278%
Associate 68% 7% -7% -2% 0% 0% 120% 329% 8% 118% 317%
High school 71% 4% -8% -3% 0% 0% 130% 483% 2% 126% 462%
Less than high school 68% 3% -10% -4% 0% 0% 126% 612% 0% 122% 582%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 30% 36% -3% 0% 3% 37% 87% 124% 36% 88% 123%
Second highest 78% 3% -6% -2% 0% 34% 117% 176% 33% 114% 171%
Middle 87% 2% -7% -3% -1% 28% 145% 258% 26% 139% 245%
Second lowest 80% 3% -9% -4% 0% 0% 204% 522% 0% 193% 499%
Lowest 45% 5% -12% -5% 0% 0% 122% 1,803% 0% 119% 1,723%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 28% 36% -3% 0% 3% 40% 88% 125% 40% 88% 124%
Second highest 80% 2% -6% -2% 0% 36% 117% 178% 35% 115% 174%
Middle 87% 2% -7% -3% -1% 29% 144% 261% 27% 139% 249%
Second lowest 81% 3% -8% -4% -1% 0% 197% 467% 0% 188% 448%
Lowest 44% 4% -12% -5% 0% 0% 121% 1,917% 0% 118% 1,819%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 30% 37% -3% 0% 3% 42% 90% 149% 42% 91% 147%
Second highest 75% 4% -6% -2% 0% 43% 119% 247% 42% 117% 236%
Middle 87% 2% -8% -3% -1% 31% 139% 330% 29% 135% 315%
Second lowest 82% 3% -9% -4% -1% 7% 176% 565% 7% 168% 530%
Lowest 46% 2% -11% -6% 0% 0% 66% 922% 0% 68% 877%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 70% 9% -13% -4% 1% 0% 116% 343% 9% 112% 316%
Sex
Female 74% 9% -13% -5% 0% 0% 137% 486% 14% 132% 445%
Male 67% 10% -12% -4% 1% 0% 99% 245% 4% 97% 225%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 75% 4% -12% -5% 0% 0% 124% 369% 5% 118% 342%
White, non-Hispanic 70% 12% -12% -4% 1% 17% 115% 338% 18% 112% 310%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 74% 5% -13% -6% 0% 0% 112% 306% 0% 107% 279%
All other races, non-Hispanic 56% 17% -11% -3% 3% 0% 100% 327% 7% 99% 299%
Country of birth
United States 72% 10% -13% -4% 1% 11% 116% 318% 13% 112% 292%
Other countries 65% 8% -12% -6% 0% 0% 116% 475% 5% 112% 430%
Highest education level
Graduate 58% 22% -9% -2% 3% 25% 106% 255% 25% 104% 238%
Bachelor 60% 19% -10% -2% 3% 8% 103% 272% 14% 102% 251%
Associate 76% 5% -13% -5% 0% 0% 118% 309% 7% 113% 282%
High school 77% 4% -13% -6% 0% 0% 124% 413% 6% 118% 373%
Less than high school 75% 2% -13% -7% -2% 0% 127% 547% 5% 121% 505%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 32% 40% -4% 0% 4% 39% 85% 121% 38% 85% 120%
Second highest 84% 3% -8% -3% 0% 40% 114% 170% 38% 111% 162%
Middle 91% 1% -13% -5% -2% 29% 138% 246% 26% 131% 228%
Second lowest 90% 1% -13% -8% -4% 11% 189% 452% 9% 175% 408%
Lowest 55% 2% -13% -9% -2% 0% 128% 1,529% 0% 122% 1,379%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 31% 41% -3% 0% 4% 41% 85% 121% 41% 86% 120%
Second highest 85% 3% -9% -3% 0% 41% 116% 173% 40% 112% 164%
Middle 91% 2% -13% -5% -2% 31% 139% 254% 28% 132% 235%
Second lowest 90% 1% -13% -7% -4% 13% 183% 414% 12% 169% 376%
Lowest 56% 1% -13% -9% -5% 0% 126% 1,578% 0% 119% 1,423%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 33% 40% -4% 0% 4% 44% 87% 139% 44% 88% 135%
Second highest 82% 4% -9% -3% 0% 45% 117% 231% 43% 114% 217%
Middle 91% 1% -13% -5% -2% 34% 136% 307% 31% 129% 282%
Second lowest 90% 1% -13% -7% -4% 12% 167% 512% 11% 156% 458%
Lowest 55% 1% -13% -9% -5% 0% 89% 792% 0% 86% 704%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 66% 0% 3% 10% 24% 46% 79% 25% 47% 82%
Sex
Female 0% 66% 0% 3% 10% 28% 51% 90% 30% 53% 90%
Male 0% 66% 0% 3% 10% 22% 42% 66% 23% 43% 68%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 66% 0% 3% 8% 28% 50% 84% 29% 52% 88%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 68% 0% 3% 11% 23% 43% 74% 24% 45% 77%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 53% 0% 1% 8% 28% 51% 85% 29% 52% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 73% 0% 4% 13% 24% 48% 90% 26% 50% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 65% 0% 3% 10% 23% 44% 75% 25% 45% 77%
Other countries 0% 72% 0% 3% 10% 28% 53% 90% 30% 55% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 81% 0% 7% 14% 21% 41% 71% 22% 44% 77%
Bachelor 0% 76% 0% 5% 13% 22% 42% 77% 23% 44% 80%
Associate 0% 65% 0% 3% 9% 24% 45% 74% 26% 46% 76%
High school 0% 59% 0% 2% 8% 27% 48% 81% 28% 49% 84%
Less than high school 0% 55% 0% 1% 7% 33% 56% 90% 34% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 87% 0% 8% 15% 17% 31% 47% 19% 32% 52%
Second highest 0% 77% 0% 4% 10% 24% 38% 56% 26% 39% 60%
Middle 0% 69% 0% 3% 9% 29% 43% 63% 31% 44% 66%
Second lowest 0% 57% 0% 1% 7% 38% 51% 77% 39% 52% 80%
Lowest 0% 41% 0% 0% 6% 53% 70% 119% 54% 71% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 90% 1% 8% 15% 16% 33% 50% 18% 35% 55%
Second highest 0% 76% 0% 4% 10% 23% 37% 57% 25% 38% 61%
Middle 0% 68% 0% 3% 8% 31% 43% 63% 31% 43% 67%
Second lowest 0% 57% 0% 1% 7% 37% 50% 78% 38% 51% 80%
Lowest 0% 40% 0% 0% 5% 52% 68% 113% 53% 69% 117%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 89% 0% 8% 15% 18% 36% 53% 20% 39% 58%
Second highest 0% 75% 0% 4% 11% 22% 38% 62% 23% 39% 65%
Middle 0% 67% 0% 3% 8% 28% 43% 69% 29% 44% 72%
Second lowest 0% 57% 0% 1% 7% 33% 50% 82% 34% 50% 86%
Lowest 0% 43% 0% 0% 6% 46% 63% 92% 47% 65% 96%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 76% 0% 14% 30% 24% 47% 85% 30% 52% 90%
Sex
Female 0% 76% 0% 13% 29% 27% 53% 90% 34% 58% 96%
Male 0% 76% 0% 15% 31% 22% 43% 73% 28% 48% 79%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 76% 0% 12% 26% 28% 51% 90% 34% 56% 91%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 77% 0% 15% 31% 23% 45% 81% 29% 50% 88%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 65% 0% 10% 28% 26% 51% 83% 33% 55% 87%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 87% 0% 18% 35% 22% 46% 90% 28% 53% 95%
Country of birth
United States 0% 75% 0% 14% 30% 23% 46% 81% 30% 51% 87%
Other countries 0% 79% 0% 13% 29% 27% 54% 90% 33% 60% 98%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 86% 0% 20% 36% 21% 42% 75% 27% 50% 86%
Bachelor 0% 84% 0% 19% 38% 21% 43% 82% 27% 49% 90%
Associate 0% 74% 0% 13% 28% 24% 45% 76% 30% 49% 82%
High school 0% 69% 0% 10% 25% 28% 51% 89% 34% 55% 90%
Less than high school 0% 72% 0% 10% 23% 31% 57% 90% 37% 61% 91%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 93% 17% 26% 47% 16% 31% 46% 24% 37% 58%
Second highest 0% 83% 0% 18% 31% 23% 38% 56% 30% 42% 67%
Middle 0% 76% 0% 14% 25% 29% 45% 65% 35% 47% 75%
Second lowest 0% 68% 0% 9% 17% 41% 55% 84% 45% 57% 94%
Lowest 0% 60% 0% 4% 12% 58% 74% 135% 60% 78% 143%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 94% 18% 26% 49% 16% 33% 49% 23% 39% 61%
Second highest 0% 82% 0% 19% 32% 22% 37% 58% 29% 41% 68%
Middle 0% 75% 0% 14% 24% 30% 45% 66% 35% 47% 76%
Second lowest 0% 68% 0% 9% 17% 39% 54% 85% 44% 56% 94%
Lowest 0% 61% 0% 4% 12% 57% 73% 127% 60% 76% 137%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 93% 13% 26% 47% 17% 35% 52% 24% 42% 64%
Second highest 0% 84% 0% 19% 33% 21% 39% 62% 28% 43% 72%
Middle 0% 77% 0% 14% 25% 27% 44% 73% 33% 47% 81%
Second lowest 0% 66% 0% 9% 18% 35% 53% 88% 40% 55% 94%
Lowest 0% 59% 0% 4% 13% 50% 67% 108% 53% 72% 115%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 77% 0% 21% 41% 24% 48% 84% 32% 55% 90%
Sex
Female 0% 77% 0% 20% 39% 28% 52% 90% 37% 61% 100%
Male 0% 77% 0% 22% 43% 22% 44% 73% 31% 50% 83%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 76% 0% 18% 36% 27% 50% 88% 36% 57% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 78% 0% 23% 43% 23% 46% 81% 32% 53% 90%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 66% 0% 17% 38% 26% 52% 84% 35% 58% 90%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 87% 0% 24% 44% 22% 45% 84% 31% 55% 95%
Country of birth
United States 0% 76% 0% 22% 41% 23% 47% 81% 32% 54% 90%
Other countries 0% 80% 0% 18% 39% 26% 51% 90% 35% 60% 96%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 86% 0% 26% 47% 21% 43% 80% 30% 54% 90%
Bachelor 0% 86% 0% 27% 50% 21% 42% 79% 30% 52% 91%
Associate 0% 73% 0% 20% 38% 25% 47% 77% 34% 53% 88%
High school 0% 71% 0% 17% 36% 28% 50% 88% 36% 56% 90%
Less than high school 0% 75% 0% 15% 31% 31% 57% 90% 39% 64% 94%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 93% 25% 34% 64% 16% 31% 47% 26% 38% 62%
Second highest 0% 84% 0% 26% 44% 24% 39% 57% 33% 44% 71%
Middle 0% 76% 0% 22% 34% 31% 45% 65% 39% 50% 80%
Second lowest 0% 68% 0% 16% 24% 41% 55% 84% 48% 60% 98%
Lowest 0% 63% 0% 11% 17% 58% 74% 128% 61% 80% 144%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 94% 25% 34% 65% 16% 33% 49% 25% 41% 64%
Second highest 0% 84% 0% 26% 45% 23% 39% 58% 33% 43% 73%
Middle 0% 74% 0% 22% 34% 31% 45% 66% 39% 49% 80%
Second lowest 0% 68% 0% 16% 24% 40% 54% 83% 47% 58% 96%
Lowest 0% 65% 0% 11% 17% 57% 73% 122% 62% 79% 135%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 93% 21% 34% 65% 16% 35% 51% 26% 44% 66%
Second highest 0% 85% 0% 26% 46% 22% 40% 63% 31% 45% 77%
Middle 0% 77% 0% 22% 35% 29% 45% 72% 37% 50% 85%
Second lowest 0% 67% 0% 17% 25% 37% 53% 88% 44% 57% 99%
Lowest 0% 63% 0% 12% 18% 50% 67% 102% 55% 73% 116%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 07/01/2021. Ref #: SSAB0501v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision.