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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Cost-of-Living
Adjustment (COLA)

Details: Base it on the Consumer Price Index for the elderly (CPI-E)

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 82% 0% 1% 1%
Sex
Female 0% 84% 0% 1% 1%
Male 0% 80% 0% 1% 1%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 71% 0% 1% 1%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 84% 0% 1% 1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 81% 0% 1% 1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 80% 0% 1% 1%
Country of birth
United States 0% 83% 0% 1% 1%
Other countries 0% 76% 0% 1% 1%
Age
60–69 0% 46% 0% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 99% 1% 1% 1%
80–89 0% 100% 1% 1% 1%
90 or older 0% 100% 1% 1% 1%
Marital status
Married 0% 80% 0% 1% 1%
Divorced 0% 83% 0% 1% 1%
Widowed 0% 91% 1% 1% 1%
Never married 0% 78% 0% 1% 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 88% 0% 1% 1%
Bachelor 0% 83% 0% 1% 1%
Associate 0% 80% 0% 1% 1%
High school 0% 83% 0% 1% 1%
Less than high school 0% 78% 0% 1% 1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 83% 0% 1% 1%
In poverty 0% 75% 0% 1% 1%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 86% 0% 1% 1%
Second highest 0% 81% 0% 1% 1%
Middle 0% 80% 0% 1% 1%
Second lowest 0% 82% 0% 1% 1%
Lowest 0% 81% 0% 1% 1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 81% 0% 1% 1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 92% 1% 1% 1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 89% 0% 1% 1%
Disabled worker only 0% 56% 0% 1% 1%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Sex
Female 0% 86% 0% 3% 5%
Male 0% 82% 0% 2% 5%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 80% 0% 2% 4%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 85% 0% 3% 5%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 87% 0% 2% 5%
Country of birth
United States 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Other countries 0% 86% 0% 2% 5%
Age
60–69 0% 46% 0% 0% 2%
70–79 0% 99% 1% 2% 3%
80–89 0% 100% 3% 4% 5%
90 or older 0% 100% 5% 5% 5%
Marital status
Married 0% 82% 0% 2% 5%
Divorced 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Widowed 0% 95% 1% 4% 5%
Never married 0% 77% 0% 1% 5%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Bachelor 0% 89% 0% 3% 5%
Associate 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
High school 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
Less than high school 0% 78% 0% 2% 5%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
In poverty 0% 78% 0% 2% 5%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 85% 0% 2% 5%
Second highest 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
Middle 0% 82% 0% 2% 5%
Second lowest 0% 86% 0% 2% 5%
Lowest 0% 85% 0% 2% 5%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 93% 1% 4% 5%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 87% 0% 2% 5%
Disabled worker only 0% 59% 0% 1% 4%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Sex
Female 0% 86% 0% 2% 6%
Male 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 80% 0% 2% 5%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 86% 0% 3% 6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 85% 0% 2% 5%
Country of birth
United States 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Other countries 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Age
60–69 0% 46% 0% 0% 2%
70–79 0% 99% 1% 2% 3%
80–89 0% 100% 3% 4% 5%
90 or older 0% 100% 5% 6% 8%
Marital status
Married 0% 82% 0% 2% 5%
Divorced 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Widowed 0% 96% 1% 4% 7%
Never married 0% 81% 0% 2% 5%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 87% 0% 2% 5%
Bachelor 0% 87% 0% 3% 6%
Associate 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
High school 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
Less than high school 0% 79% 0% 2% 5%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
In poverty 0% 80% 0% 2% 6%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 85% 0% 2% 5%
Second highest 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
Middle 0% 82% 0% 2% 5%
Second lowest 0% 87% 0% 2% 6%
Lowest 0% 85% 0% 3% 6%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 92% 1% 4% 7%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 87% 0% 2% 5%
Disabled worker only 0% 62% 0% 1% 4%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2021$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 22% 0% 0% 1%
Sex
Female 0% 24% 0% 0% 1%
Male 0% 19% 0% 0% 1%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 21% 0% 0% 1%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 21% 0% 0% 1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 28% 0% 0% 1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 19% 0% 0% 1%
Country of birth
United States 0% 22% 0% 0% 1%
Other countries 0% 19% 0% 0% 1%
Age
60–69 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 27% 0% 0% 1%
80–89 0% 25% 0% 0% 1%
90 or older 0% 25% 0% 0% 1%
Marital status
Married 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Divorced 0% 30% 0% 0% 1%
Widowed 0% 30% 0% 0% 1%
Never married 0% 26% 0% 0% 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Associate 0% 22% 0% 0% 1%
High school 0% 28% 0% 0% 1%
Less than high school 0% 30% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 20% 0% 0% 1%
In poverty 0% 51% 0% 1% 1%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 38% 0% 0% 1%
Lowest 0% 62% 0% 1% 1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 19% 0% 0% 1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 37% 0% 0% 1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Disabled worker only 0% 22% 0% 0% 1%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
Sex
Female 0% 55% 0% 1% 3%
Male 0% 45% 0% 0% 2%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 48% 0% 0% 3%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 56% 0% 1% 3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 46% 0% 0% 2%
Country of birth
United States 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
Other countries 0% 49% 0% 0% 3%
Age
60–69 0% 18% 0% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 53% 0% 1% 2%
80–89 0% 76% 0% 1% 4%
90 or older 0% 69% 0% 1% 4%
Marital status
Married 0% 46% 0% 0% 2%
Divorced 0% 52% 0% 1% 3%
Widowed 0% 67% 0% 1% 4%
Never married 0% 41% 0% 0% 3%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 36% 0% 0% 2%
Bachelor 0% 47% 0% 0% 2%
Associate 0% 54% 0% 1% 3%
High school 0% 57% 0% 1% 3%
Less than high school 0% 50% 0% 0% 3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 50% 0% 1% 3%
In poverty 0% 59% 0% 1% 4%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 36% 0% 0% 1%
Middle 0% 58% 0% 1% 2%
Second lowest 0% 75% 0% 1% 3%
Lowest 0% 76% 0% 2% 4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 47% 0% 0% 2%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 71% 0% 1% 4%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 50% 0% 0% 2%
Disabled worker only 0% 33% 0% 0% 2%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 53% 0% 1% 3%
Sex
Female 0% 58% 0% 1% 3%
Male 0% 49% 0% 0% 3%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 53% 0% 1% 3%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 55% 0% 1% 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 56% 0% 1% 3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 44% 0% 0% 3%
Country of birth
United States 0% 54% 0% 1% 3%
Other countries 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
Age
60–69 0% 20% 0% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 56% 0% 1% 2%
80–89 0% 77% 0% 2% 4%
90 or older 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Marital status
Married 0% 50% 0% 0% 3%
Divorced 0% 53% 0% 1% 3%
Widowed 0% 73% 0% 1% 4%
Never married 0% 48% 0% 0% 3%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 45% 0% 0% 2%
Bachelor 0% 49% 0% 0% 3%
Associate 0% 58% 0% 1% 3%
High school 0% 58% 0% 1% 3%
Less than high school 0% 54% 0% 1% 3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 53% 0% 1% 3%
In poverty 0% 59% 0% 1% 5%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 38% 0% 0% 1%
Middle 0% 62% 0% 1% 2%
Second lowest 0% 78% 0% 2% 4%
Lowest 0% 79% 0% 2% 5%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 73% 0% 2% 5%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 53% 0% 1% 3%
Disabled worker only 0% 35% 0% 0% 2%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 5% 4% 3,237 3,103 -134 -4%
Sex
Female 5% 4% 1,787 1,705 -82 -4%
Male 4% 4% 1,450 1,398 -51 -3%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 570 535 -34 -6%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,804 1,731 -72 -4%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 8% 636 615 -21 -3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 5% 228 222 -5 -2%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,472 2,360 -112 -4%
Other countries 7% 7% 765 743 -21 -2%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,486 1,431 -54 -3%
70–79 4% 4% 1,318 1,263 -54 -4%
80–89 3% 2% 381 356 -24 -6%
90 or older 2% 2% 53 53 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 469 457 -12 -2%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,207 1,146 -60 -4%
Widowed 6% 6% 740 706 -33 -4%
Never married 16% 16% 821 794 -27 -3%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 97 89 -7 -8%
Bachelor 2% 2% 263 257 -5 -2%
Associate 4% 4% 626 574 -52 -8%
High school 6% 6% 1,534 1,492 -41 -2%
Less than high school 12% 12% 717 690 -26 -3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 96% 3,237 3,103 -134 -4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,252 2,181 -70 -3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 5% 577 541 -35 -6%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 145 141 -3 -2%
Disabled worker only 10% 9% 263 239 -24 -9%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 4% 4% 3,309 3,012 -297 -8%
Sex
Female 4% 4% 1,862 1,708 -154 -8%
Male 4% 3% 1,447 1,304 -143 -9%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 5% 897 836 -60 -6%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,472 1,327 -145 -9%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 7% 679 618 -60 -8%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 261 231 -30 -11%
Country of birth
United States 4% 3% 2,260 2,034 -226 -10%
Other countries 6% 5% 1,048 978 -70 -6%
Age
60–69 5% 5% 1,277 1,231 -45 -3%
70–79 4% 3% 1,105 1,002 -103 -9%
80–89 3% 3% 734 633 -101 -13%
90 or older 3% 2% 193 147 -46 -24%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 457 433 -23 -5%
Divorced 6% 6% 948 853 -95 -10%
Widowed 5% 4% 750 662 -88 -11%
Never married 12% 11% 1,154 1,064 -89 -7%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 75 -15 -16%
Bachelor 2% 1% 280 248 -31 -11%
Associate 3% 3% 555 501 -53 -9%
High school 6% 5% 1,549 1,403 -146 -9%
Less than high school 11% 10% 834 785 -49 -5%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 91% 3,309 3,012 -297 -8%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 4% 2,500 2,295 -205 -8%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 3% 498 424 -73 -14%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 99 94 -4 -4%
Disabled worker only 6% 6% 212 198 -13 -6%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Without proposal With proposal Without proposal With proposal Change
Total 3% 2% 2,425 2,231 -193 -7%
Sex
Female 3% 2% 1,304 1,200 -103 -7%
Male 2% 2% 1,121 1,031 -89 -7%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 3% 769 707 -61 -8%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,009 932 -77 -7%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 392 362 -30 -7%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 254 230 -23 -9%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,586 1,450 -136 -8%
Other countries 4% 4% 839 782 -56 -6%
Age
60–69 3% 3% 795 762 -32 -4%
70–79 3% 2% 906 832 -73 -8%
80–89 3% 2% 585 532 -53 -9%
90 or older 2% 1% 139 106 -33 -23%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 292 269 -23 -8%
Divorced 3% 3% 613 568 -45 -7%
Widowed 3% 3% 473 431 -42 -8%
Never married 6% 6% 1,046 964 -81 -7%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 150 -5 -3%
Bachelor 1% 1% 218 192 -26 -12%
Associate 2% 2% 405 368 -37 -9%
High school 4% 3% 1,033 947 -86 -8%
Less than high school 6% 6% 613 575 -38 -6%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 92% 2,425 2,231 -193 -7%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 1,958 1,829 -129 -6%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 321 273 -47 -14%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 1% 41 40 0 -2%
Disabled worker only 3% 2% 105 89 -15 -15%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 75% 0% 2% 3% 5% 127% 397% 5% 130% 407%
Sex
Female 0% 79% 0% 2% 4% 23% 159% 562% 23% 164% 575%
Male 0% 72% 0% 2% 3% 0% 105% 239% 0% 107% 244%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 73% 0% 2% 3% 0% 141% 506% 0% 144% 520%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 78% 0% 2% 3% 14% 122% 359% 14% 126% 370%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 66% 0% 2% 3% 0% 131% 410% 0% 134% 415%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 74% 0% 2% 3% 0% 132% 493% 0% 135% 502%
Country of birth
United States 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 12% 123% 363% 12% 126% 374%
Other countries 0% 74% 0% 2% 3% 0% 144% 525% 0% 148% 538%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 88% 1% 2% 4% 24% 113% 245% 24% 116% 251%
Bachelor 0% 85% 0% 2% 4% 25% 120% 324% 25% 123% 334%
Associate 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 16% 127% 340% 16% 131% 350%
High school 0% 71% 0% 2% 3% 0% 133% 475% 0% 136% 483%
Less than high school 0% 60% 0% 1% 3% 0% 141% 718% 0% 143% 726%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 91% 1% 2% 3% 36% 93% 136% 36% 96% 141%
Second highest 0% 84% 0% 2% 3% 21% 118% 175% 21% 121% 181%
Middle 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 10% 140% 234% 10% 143% 241%
Second lowest 0% 69% 0% 2% 3% 23% 205% 444% 23% 210% 456%
Lowest 0% 57% 0% 2% 3% 0% 228% 1,369% 0% 233% 1,402%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 93% 1% 2% 3% 40% 94% 134% 41% 96% 139%
Second highest 0% 84% 0% 2% 3% 23% 118% 173% 23% 121% 179%
Middle 0% 77% 0% 2% 3% 16% 141% 235% 16% 144% 242%
Second lowest 0% 70% 0% 2% 3% 18% 193% 403% 18% 197% 412%
Lowest 0% 53% 0% 1% 3% 0% 270% 1,384% 0% 275% 1,423%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 94% 1% 2% 3% 47% 101% 169% 48% 104% 175%
Second highest 0% 86% 0% 2% 3% 33% 118% 237% 33% 122% 245%
Middle 0% 78% 0% 2% 3% 15% 136% 314% 15% 139% 325%
Second lowest 0% 70% 0% 2% 3% 9% 165% 490% 9% 169% 501%
Lowest 0% 49% 0% 1% 3% 0% 183% 1,028% 0% 186% 1,029%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 77% 0% 2% 3% 0% 119% 375% 0% 122% 386%
Sex
Female 0% 80% 0% 2% 4% 0% 143% 532% 0% 147% 546%
Male 0% 74% 0% 2% 3% 0% 101% 258% 0% 104% 265%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 72% 0% 2% 3% 0% 128% 410% 0% 131% 423%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 82% 0% 2% 3% 14% 118% 372% 14% 121% 383%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 68% 0% 2% 3% 0% 111% 323% 0% 114% 334%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 72% 1% 2% 4% 0% 106% 410% 0% 109% 427%
Country of birth
United States 0% 80% 0% 2% 3% 7% 118% 342% 8% 121% 353%
Other countries 0% 68% 0% 2% 3% 0% 121% 521% 0% 124% 539%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 86% 1% 2% 4% 21% 105% 271% 21% 108% 281%
Bachelor 0% 82% 1% 2% 4% 5% 107% 291% 5% 111% 301%
Associate 0% 78% 0% 2% 3% 0% 120% 329% 0% 123% 340%
High school 0% 74% 0% 2% 3% 0% 130% 483% 0% 133% 498%
Less than high school 0% 65% 0% 2% 3% 0% 126% 612% 0% 129% 628%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 92% 1% 2% 3% 37% 87% 124% 38% 90% 128%
Second highest 0% 87% 0% 2% 3% 34% 117% 176% 35% 120% 182%
Middle 0% 80% 0% 2% 3% 28% 145% 258% 28% 148% 265%
Second lowest 0% 75% 0% 2% 3% 0% 204% 522% 0% 209% 538%
Lowest 0% 52% 0% 2% 4% 0% 122% 1,803% 0% 125% 1,866%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 93% 1% 2% 3% 40% 88% 125% 40% 90% 129%
Second highest 0% 87% 0% 2% 3% 36% 117% 178% 37% 120% 185%
Middle 0% 81% 0% 2% 3% 29% 144% 261% 29% 148% 269%
Second lowest 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 0% 197% 467% 0% 202% 481%
Lowest 0% 48% 0% 2% 4% 0% 121% 1,917% 0% 122% 1,970%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 93% 1% 2% 3% 42% 90% 149% 43% 93% 154%
Second highest 0% 89% 1% 2% 3% 43% 119% 247% 43% 123% 255%
Middle 0% 82% 0% 2% 3% 31% 139% 330% 32% 143% 340%
Second lowest 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 7% 176% 565% 7% 180% 578%
Lowest 0% 44% 0% 2% 3% 0% 66% 922% 0% 67% 940%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio
without proposal
at the—		 Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 79% 0% 2% 3% 0% 116% 343% 0% 119% 355%
Sex
Female 0% 82% 1% 2% 4% 0% 137% 486% 0% 141% 503%
Male 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 0% 99% 245% 0% 101% 251%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 75% 0% 2% 3% 0% 124% 369% 0% 127% 384%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 83% 0% 2% 4% 17% 115% 338% 17% 118% 348%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 72% 0% 2% 3% 0% 112% 306% 0% 115% 315%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 76% 1% 2% 4% 0% 100% 327% 0% 103% 338%
Country of birth
United States 0% 82% 0% 2% 3% 11% 116% 318% 11% 119% 328%
Other countries 0% 71% 1% 2% 4% 0% 116% 475% 0% 119% 491%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 87% 1% 3% 4% 25% 106% 255% 26% 109% 264%
Bachelor 0% 84% 1% 2% 4% 8% 103% 272% 8% 106% 281%
Associate 0% 79% 0% 2% 3% 0% 118% 309% 0% 121% 318%
High school 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 0% 124% 413% 0% 127% 426%
Less than high school 0% 69% 0% 2% 3% 0% 127% 547% 0% 130% 562%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 93% 1% 2% 3% 39% 85% 121% 39% 87% 125%
Second highest 0% 88% 1% 2% 3% 40% 114% 170% 41% 118% 176%
Middle 0% 82% 0% 2% 3% 29% 138% 246% 29% 142% 253%
Second lowest 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 11% 189% 452% 11% 193% 467%
Lowest 0% 54% 1% 2% 4% 0% 128% 1,529% 0% 131% 1,596%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 94% 1% 2% 3% 41% 85% 121% 42% 88% 125%
Second highest 0% 89% 1% 2% 3% 41% 116% 173% 42% 119% 179%
Middle 0% 83% 0% 2% 3% 31% 139% 254% 32% 143% 261%
Second lowest 0% 77% 0% 2% 3% 13% 183% 414% 14% 188% 427%
Lowest 0% 51% 0% 2% 4% 0% 126% 1,578% 0% 128% 1,632%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 95% 1% 2% 3% 44% 87% 139% 45% 90% 143%
Second highest 0% 90% 1% 2% 3% 45% 117% 231% 46% 120% 239%
Middle 0% 84% 0% 2% 3% 34% 136% 307% 34% 139% 315%
Second lowest 0% 77% 0% 2% 3% 12% 167% 512% 12% 171% 528%
Lowest 0% 48% 0% 2% 4% 0% 89% 792% 0% 90% 813%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 79% 24% 46% 80%
Sex
Female 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 90% 28% 51% 90%
Male 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 84% 28% 50% 85%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 23% 43% 74% 23% 44% 75%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 85% 28% 51% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 24% 48% 90% 24% 48% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 75% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 13% 0% 0% 1% 21% 41% 71% 21% 41% 72%
Bachelor 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 77%
Associate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 74% 24% 45% 74%
High school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 27% 48% 81% 27% 48% 82%
Less than high school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 33% 56% 90% 33% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 17% 31% 47% 17% 31% 48%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 24% 38% 56% 25% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 29% 43% 63% 29% 43% 63%
Second lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 77% 38% 51% 78%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 119% 53% 70% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 16% 33% 50% 17% 33% 51%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 23% 37% 57% 23% 37% 57%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 31% 43% 63% 31% 43% 64%
Second lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 37% 50% 78% 37% 51% 78%
Lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 52% 68% 113% 52% 68% 115%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 18% 36% 53% 18% 36% 54%
Second highest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 22% 38% 62% 22% 38% 63%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 28% 43% 69% 28% 43% 69%
Second lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 82% 33% 50% 83%
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 46% 63% 92% 46% 63% 92%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 85% 24% 47% 85%
Sex
Female 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Male 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 73% 22% 43% 73%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 90% 28% 52% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 81% 23% 45% 82%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 83% 26% 51% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 1% 22% 46% 90% 22% 46% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 81% 23% 46% 81%
Other countries 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 27% 54% 90% 27% 54% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 12% 0% 0% 1% 21% 42% 75% 21% 42% 75%
Bachelor 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 21% 43% 82% 21% 43% 83%
Associate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 46% 76%
High school 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 89% 28% 51% 89%
Less than high school 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 31% 57% 90% 31% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 17% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 57%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 29% 45% 65% 29% 45% 65%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 41% 55% 84% 41% 55% 85%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 58% 74% 135% 58% 74% 136%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 16% 33% 49% 16% 34% 50%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 58%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 66% 30% 45% 67%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 39% 54% 85% 39% 54% 86%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 57% 73% 127% 57% 73% 129%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 17% 35% 52% 17% 35% 52%
Second highest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 21% 39% 62% 21% 39% 63%
Middle 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 27% 44% 73% 27% 44% 73%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 35% 53% 88% 35% 53% 89%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 108% 51% 67% 109%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate
without proposal
at the—		 Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 24% 48% 84% 24% 48% 85%
Sex
Female 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Male 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 22% 44% 73% 22% 44% 74%
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 88% 27% 50% 89%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 81% 23% 46% 82%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 26% 52% 84% 26% 52% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 22% 45% 84% 22% 45% 85%
Country of birth
United States 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 23% 47% 81% 23% 47% 82%
Other countries 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 12% 0% 0% 1% 21% 43% 80% 21% 43% 81%
Bachelor 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 80%
Associate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 25% 47% 77% 25% 47% 78%
High school 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 88% 28% 50% 88%
Less than high school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 31% 57% 90% 31% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 40% 57%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 66%
Second lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 41% 55% 84% 41% 55% 85%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 58% 74% 128% 58% 74% 130%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 16% 33% 49% 16% 33% 50%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 23% 39% 58% 23% 39% 59%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 67%
Second lowest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 40% 54% 83% 40% 54% 84%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 57% 73% 122% 57% 73% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 52%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 22% 40% 63% 22% 40% 64%
Middle 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 73%
Second lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 37% 53% 88% 37% 53% 89%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 102% 50% 67% 103%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.19, Analysis 2.0. Run: 06/30/2021. Ref #: OACT0615v1
NOTES: Start date = 2022.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision A6.