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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Cost-of-Living
Adjustment (COLA)

Details: Base it on the Consumer Price Index for the elderly (CPI-E)

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 85% 0% 2% 4%
Sex
Female 0% 86% 0% 3% 5%
Male 0% 83% 0% 2% 4%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 81% 0% 2% 4%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 86% 0% 3% 5%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 83% 0% 2% 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 87% 0% 2% 4%
Country of birth
United States 0% 84% 0% 2% 4%
Other countries 0% 86% 0% 2% 4%
Age
60–69 0% 46% 0% 0% 2%
70–79 0% 99% 1% 2% 3%
80–89 0% 100% 3% 4% 5%
90 or older 0% 100% 4% 4% 5%
Marital status
Married 0% 83% 0% 2% 4%
Divorced 0% 84% 0% 2% 4%
Widowed 0% 95% 1% 4% 5%
Never married 0% 76% 0% 1% 4%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 85% 0% 2% 4%
Bachelor 0% 89% 0% 3% 4%
Associate 0% 84% 0% 2% 4%
High school 0% 84% 0% 2% 4%
Less than high school 0% 78% 0% 2% 4%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 85% 0% 2% 4%
In poverty 0% 78% 0% 2% 5%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 86% 0% 2% 4%
Second highest 0% 83% 0% 2% 4%
Middle 0% 83% 0% 2% 4%
Second lowest 0% 85% 0% 2% 4%
Lowest 0% 85% 0% 2% 5%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 84% 0% 2% 4%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 93% 1% 4% 5%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 89% 0% 2% 4%
Disabled worker only 0% 57% 0% 1% 3%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 85% 0% 2% 5%
Sex
Female 0% 86% 0% 2% 6%
Male 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 81% 0% 2% 5%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 86% 0% 3% 6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 85% 0% 2% 5%
Country of birth
United States 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Other countries 0% 86% 0% 2% 5%
Age
60–69 0% 47% 0% 0% 2%
70–79 0% 99% 1% 2% 3%
80–89 0% 100% 3% 4% 5%
90 or older 0% 100% 5% 6% 8%
Marital status
Married 0% 83% 0% 2% 5%
Divorced 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Widowed 0% 96% 1% 4% 7%
Never married 0% 81% 0% 2% 5%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 87% 0% 2% 5%
Bachelor 0% 88% 0% 3% 6%
Associate 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
High school 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Less than high school 0% 80% 0% 2% 5%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 85% 0% 2% 5%
In poverty 0% 80% 0% 2% 6%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 86% 0% 2% 5%
Second highest 0% 82% 0% 2% 5%
Middle 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Second lowest 0% 86% 0% 3% 6%
Lowest 0% 86% 0% 3% 6%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 84% 0% 2% 5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 93% 1% 4% 7%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 88% 0% 2% 5%
Disabled worker only 0% 60% 0% 1% 4%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
Sex
Female 0% 56% 0% 1% 3%
Male 0% 46% 0% 0% 2%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 56% 0% 1% 3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 46% 0% 0% 3%
Country of birth
United States 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
Other countries 0% 52% 0% 1% 3%
Age
60–69 0% 19% 0% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 54% 0% 1% 2%
80–89 0% 77% 0% 1% 3%
90 or older 0% 67% 0% 1% 4%
Marital status
Married 0% 48% 0% 0% 2%
Divorced 0% 52% 0% 1% 3%
Widowed 0% 66% 0% 1% 4%
Never married 0% 42% 0% 0% 2%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 36% 0% 0% 2%
Bachelor 0% 47% 0% 0% 2%
Associate 0% 56% 0% 1% 3%
High school 0% 58% 0% 1% 3%
Less than high school 0% 52% 0% 1% 3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
In poverty 0% 65% 0% 1% 4%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 36% 0% 0% 1%
Middle 0% 60% 0% 1% 2%
Second lowest 0% 76% 0% 1% 3%
Lowest 0% 78% 0% 2% 4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 48% 0% 0% 2%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 70% 0% 1% 4%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 55% 0% 1% 2%
Disabled worker only 0% 30% 0% 0% 2%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 55% 0% 1% 3%
Sex
Female 0% 59% 0% 1% 4%
Male 0% 50% 0% 1% 3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 55% 0% 1% 3%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 56% 0% 1% 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 57% 0% 1% 3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 46% 0% 0% 3%
Country of birth
United States 0% 55% 0% 1% 3%
Other countries 0% 54% 0% 1% 3%
Age
60–69 0% 20% 0% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 56% 0% 1% 2%
80–89 0% 79% 0% 2% 4%
90 or older 0% 85% 0% 2% 5%
Marital status
Married 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
Divorced 0% 55% 0% 1% 3%
Widowed 0% 73% 0% 2% 4%
Never married 0% 49% 0% 0% 3%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 45% 0% 0% 2%
Bachelor 0% 52% 0% 1% 3%
Associate 0% 58% 0% 1% 3%
High school 0% 60% 0% 1% 4%
Less than high school 0% 56% 0% 1% 4%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 54% 0% 1% 3%
In poverty 0% 71% 0% 2% 5%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Second highest 0% 40% 0% 0% 2%
Middle 0% 62% 0% 1% 3%
Second lowest 0% 78% 0% 2% 4%
Lowest 0% 82% 0% 2% 5%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 52% 0% 1% 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 75% 0% 2% 5%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 56% 0% 1% 3%
Disabled worker only 0% 34% 0% 0% 2%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,345 -120 -3%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,895 -63 -3%
Male 5% 4% 1,507 1,450 -57 -3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 653 -19 -2%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,878 -65 -3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 553 -23 -4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 6% 273 261 -11 -4%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,403 -82 -3%
Other countries 9% 8% 979 942 -37 -3%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,604 -51 -3%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,300 -46 -3%
80–89 3% 3% 417 394 -22 -5%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 617 -28 -4%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,136 -38 -3%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 789 -23 -2%
Never married 16% 16% 832 802 -29 -3%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 85 -5 -6%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 309 -12 -3%
Associate 4% 4% 694 661 -33 -4%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,538 -54 -3%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 752 -13 -1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 97% 3,465 3,345 -120 -3%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,274 -80 -3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 5% 664 646 -17 -2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 177 -11 -6%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 246 -10 -4%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 4% 3,782 3,504 -277 -7%
Sex
Female 5% 4% 2,099 1,919 -180 -8%
Male 4% 4% 1,683 1,585 -97 -5%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 6% 1,058 977 -80 -7%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,741 1,605 -136 -7%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 657 604 -52 -7%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 317 -8 -2%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,309 -201 -8%
Other countries 7% 6% 1,271 1,194 -76 -5%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,402 1,354 -48 -3%
70–79 4% 4% 1,337 1,239 -97 -7%
80–89 4% 4% 873 779 -93 -10%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 132 -38 -22%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 674 -37 -5%
Divorced 7% 6% 1,070 967 -103 -9%
Widowed 5% 5% 817 755 -62 -7%
Never married 12% 11% 1,183 1,108 -75 -6%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 169 167 -2 -1%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 307 -36 -10%
Associate 3% 3% 630 579 -50 -8%
High school 6% 6% 1,694 1,572 -122 -7%
Less than high school 12% 12% 944 879 -65 -6%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 93% 3,782 3,504 -277 -7%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 4% 2,839 2,663 -176 -6%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 441 -67 -13%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 218 199 -18 -8%
Disabled worker only 7% 6% 216 201 -14 -6%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,822 2,606 -216 -7%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,527 1,399 -127 -8%
Male 3% 3% 1,296 1,207 -88 -6%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 4% 963 904 -59 -6%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,125 1,031 -94 -8%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 4% 426 383 -42 -10%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 309 288 -20 -6%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,770 1,615 -154 -8%
Other countries 5% 5% 1,052 991 -61 -5%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 914 -31 -3%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 991 -66 -6%
80–89 3% 2% 628 540 -88 -14%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 162 -30 -15%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 444 -25 -5%
Divorced 4% 3% 687 626 -60 -8%
Widowed 3% 3% 486 429 -57 -11%
Never married 7% 7% 1,179 1,107 -72 -6%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 141 -15 -9%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 201 -15 -6%
Associate 2% 2% 460 418 -41 -8%
High school 4% 4% 1,229 1,133 -95 -7%
Less than high school 8% 7% 761 713 -48 -6%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 92% 2,822 2,606 -216 -7%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 2,197 2,034 -163 -7%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 2% 314 269 -44 -14%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 156 152 -3 -2%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 151 -4 -3%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 73% 0% 2% 3% 6% 145% 450% 6% 149% 459%
Sex
Female 0% 77% 0% 2% 3% 26% 182% 644% 26% 187% 659%
Male 0% 68% 0% 2% 3% 0% 119% 266% 0% 122% 271%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 71% 0% 2% 3% 0% 162% 569% 0% 165% 583%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 75% 0% 2% 3% 15% 140% 406% 15% 144% 416%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 63% 0% 1% 3% 0% 149% 473% 0% 153% 476%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 70% 0% 2% 3% 0% 146% 508% 0% 149% 523%
Country of birth
United States 0% 73% 0% 2% 3% 12% 141% 416% 12% 145% 424%
Other countries 0% 72% 0% 2% 3% 0% 164% 599% 0% 168% 612%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 85% 1% 2% 3% 23% 125% 264% 23% 129% 273%
Bachelor 0% 83% 0% 2% 3% 22% 137% 362% 22% 141% 373%
Associate 0% 73% 0% 2% 3% 12% 146% 393% 12% 150% 401%
High school 0% 69% 0% 2% 3% 0% 153% 519% 0% 157% 530%
Less than high school 0% 57% 0% 1% 3% 0% 161% 803% 0% 165% 826%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 90% 1% 2% 3% 39% 108% 157% 40% 111% 163%
Second highest 0% 82% 0% 2% 3% 24% 134% 201% 24% 137% 208%
Middle 0% 74% 0% 2% 3% 14% 160% 270% 14% 164% 278%
Second lowest 0% 66% 0% 1% 3% 23% 228% 504% 23% 233% 517%
Lowest 0% 53% 0% 1% 3% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 259% 1,595%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 92% 1% 2% 3% 47% 108% 152% 47% 111% 158%
Second highest 0% 82% 0% 2% 3% 25% 136% 202% 25% 139% 209%
Middle 0% 74% 0% 2% 3% 15% 161% 267% 15% 165% 275%
Second lowest 0% 67% 0% 1% 3% 18% 218% 454% 18% 223% 462%
Lowest 0% 49% 0% 1% 3% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 314% 1,616%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 94% 1% 2% 3% 56% 115% 194% 57% 119% 200%
Second highest 0% 84% 0% 2% 3% 36% 139% 269% 36% 143% 277%
Middle 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 19% 160% 363% 19% 163% 372%
Second lowest 0% 65% 0% 1% 3% 6% 185% 516% 6% 189% 528%
Lowest 0% 45% 0% 1% 3% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 209% 1,158%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 0% 129% 404% 0% 132% 415%
Sex
Female 0% 80% 1% 2% 4% 0% 156% 570% 0% 161% 590%
Male 0% 72% 0% 2% 3% 0% 110% 275% 0% 113% 282%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 69% 0% 2% 3% 0% 133% 447% 0% 136% 462%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 81% 0% 2% 3% 11% 130% 403% 11% 134% 416%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 70% 0% 2% 3% 0% 130% 355% 0% 133% 366%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 70% 0% 2% 3% 0% 104% 383% 0% 107% 392%
Country of birth
United States 0% 79% 0% 2% 3% 6% 130% 369% 7% 133% 380%
Other countries 0% 66% 0% 2% 3% 0% 125% 602% 0% 128% 626%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 86% 1% 2% 4% 17% 113% 278% 17% 116% 288%
Bachelor 0% 82% 1% 2% 4% 5% 117% 311% 5% 121% 323%
Associate 0% 77% 0% 2% 3% 0% 133% 348% 0% 137% 361%
High school 0% 73% 0% 2% 3% 0% 143% 533% 0% 146% 551%
Less than high school 0% 63% 0% 2% 3% 0% 133% 627% 0% 136% 644%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 92% 1% 2% 3% 40% 96% 138% 40% 99% 143%
Second highest 0% 86% 0% 2% 3% 31% 128% 192% 31% 131% 199%
Middle 0% 80% 0% 2% 3% 26% 157% 271% 26% 161% 280%
Second lowest 0% 73% 0% 2% 3% 0% 220% 568% 0% 225% 588%
Lowest 0% 50% 0% 2% 4% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 124% 2,150%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 93% 1% 2% 3% 42% 96% 137% 43% 99% 142%
Second highest 0% 87% 0% 2% 3% 39% 129% 194% 39% 133% 201%
Middle 0% 81% 0% 2% 3% 24% 159% 274% 24% 163% 283%
Second lowest 0% 74% 0% 2% 3% 0% 215% 505% 0% 220% 522%
Lowest 0% 45% 0% 2% 4% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 96% 2,273%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 94% 1% 2% 3% 46% 99% 163% 47% 102% 169%
Second highest 0% 88% 1% 2% 3% 44% 131% 267% 44% 135% 275%
Middle 0% 83% 0% 2% 3% 35% 158% 359% 35% 162% 371%
Second lowest 0% 74% 0% 2% 3% 0% 188% 575% 0% 193% 593%
Lowest 0% 41% 0% 1% 3% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 38% 1,072%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 79% 0% 2% 4% 0% 120% 357% 0% 123% 370%
Sex
Female 0% 82% 1% 2% 4% 5% 145% 519% 5% 149% 535%
Male 0% 75% 0% 2% 3% 0% 103% 246% 0% 105% 253%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 74% 0% 2% 3% 0% 125% 401% 0% 128% 417%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 84% 1% 2% 4% 17% 120% 343% 17% 123% 355%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 71% 0% 2% 3% 0% 118% 333% 0% 121% 341%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 76% 1% 2% 4% 0% 105% 349% 0% 108% 358%
Country of birth
United States 0% 82% 0% 2% 3% 9% 120% 319% 9% 123% 329%
Other countries 0% 70% 1% 2% 4% 0% 121% 565% 0% 124% 586%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 87% 1% 3% 4% 21% 109% 259% 21% 113% 269%
Bachelor 0% 85% 1% 2% 4% 13% 110% 278% 13% 113% 287%
Associate 0% 80% 0% 2% 3% 0% 124% 318% 0% 127% 329%
High school 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 0% 129% 441% 0% 133% 457%
Less than high school 0% 67% 0% 2% 3% 0% 125% 594% 0% 128% 616%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 93% 1% 2% 3% 40% 88% 127% 40% 91% 131%
Second highest 0% 88% 1% 2% 3% 34% 118% 177% 34% 122% 183%
Middle 0% 82% 0% 2% 3% 30% 144% 246% 30% 148% 254%
Second lowest 0% 77% 0% 2% 3% 9% 196% 466% 9% 201% 480%
Lowest 0% 53% 0% 2% 4% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 125% 1,789%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 94% 1% 2% 3% 43% 89% 127% 44% 92% 131%
Second highest 0% 89% 1% 2% 3% 38% 119% 179% 38% 122% 185%
Middle 0% 83% 0% 2% 3% 27% 144% 249% 28% 148% 257%
Second lowest 0% 78% 0% 2% 3% 13% 192% 442% 13% 196% 458%
Lowest 0% 50% 0% 2% 4% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 126% 1,838%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 94% 1% 3% 4% 45% 91% 145% 46% 94% 151%
Second highest 0% 90% 1% 2% 3% 46% 122% 227% 46% 125% 235%
Middle 0% 84% 0% 2% 3% 31% 140% 302% 31% 144% 313%
Second lowest 0% 78% 0% 2% 3% 11% 172% 532% 11% 177% 550%
Lowest 0% 47% 0% 2% 4% 0% 80% 996% 0% 81% 1,029%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 79% 1% 2% 4% 0% 125% 366% 0% 128% 378%
Sex
Female 0% 83% 1% 2% 4% 1% 149% 531% 1% 154% 550%
Male 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 0% 107% 252% 0% 110% 260%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 75% 0% 2% 3% 0% 129% 400% 0% 133% 413%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 85% 1% 2% 4% 21% 126% 363% 21% 129% 375%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 73% 0% 2% 3% 0% 121% 306% 0% 124% 313%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 77% 1% 3% 4% 0% 113% 335% 0% 116% 345%
Country of birth
United States 0% 83% 1% 2% 4% 11% 125% 324% 11% 129% 335%
Other countries 0% 70% 0% 2% 4% 0% 123% 516% 0% 126% 534%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 87% 1% 3% 4% 30% 116% 286% 30% 119% 296%
Bachelor 0% 84% 1% 3% 4% 9% 115% 300% 9% 119% 309%
Associate 0% 80% 1% 2% 3% 0% 129% 325% 0% 133% 337%
High school 0% 76% 0% 2% 3% 0% 133% 439% 0% 136% 453%
Less than high school 0% 68% 0% 2% 3% 0% 129% 578% 0% 132% 599%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 94% 1% 3% 3% 45% 95% 133% 46% 98% 138%
Second highest 0% 89% 1% 2% 3% 43% 124% 181% 43% 127% 187%
Middle 0% 82% 0% 2% 3% 23% 149% 251% 23% 153% 259%
Second lowest 0% 78% 0% 2% 4% 0% 208% 500% 0% 213% 517%
Lowest 0% 52% 0% 2% 4% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 126% 1,607%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 95% 1% 3% 3% 46% 95% 133% 47% 98% 138%
Second highest 0% 89% 1% 2% 3% 44% 123% 182% 44% 127% 189%
Middle 0% 83% 0% 2% 4% 30% 149% 254% 30% 153% 263%
Second lowest 0% 78% 0% 2% 4% 2% 202% 466% 2% 208% 484%
Lowest 0% 50% 0% 2% 4% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 127% 1,643%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 96% 1% 3% 4% 50% 98% 152% 52% 102% 158%
Second highest 0% 90% 1% 2% 4% 46% 125% 235% 46% 128% 243%
Middle 0% 85% 0% 2% 4% 36% 146% 316% 36% 150% 328%
Second lowest 0% 79% 0% 2% 3% 8% 183% 543% 8% 188% 562%
Lowest 0% 46% 0% 2% 4% 0% 73% 797% 0% 74% 816%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 81%
Sex
Female 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 28% 51% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 49% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 45% 77%
Other countries 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 29% 54% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 21% 42% 72% 22% 42% 73%
Bachelor 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 43% 77%
Associate 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 76%
High school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 83%
Less than high school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 48%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 44% 65%
Second lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 79%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 70% 121%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 15% 34% 50% 16% 34% 51%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 58%
Middle 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 67%
Second lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 82%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 113%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 17% 36% 54% 17% 37% 54%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 64%
Middle 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 71%
Second lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 86%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 91%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 82% 24% 47% 83%
Sex
Female 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 27% 52% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Male 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 71% 22% 43% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 78% 23% 45% 79%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 26% 51% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 1% 22% 45% 81% 22% 46% 81%
Country of birth
United States 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 78% 23% 46% 79%
Other countries 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 26% 53% 90% 26% 54% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 13% 0% 0% 1% 21% 41% 74% 21% 41% 75%
Bachelor 0% 12% 0% 0% 1% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 80%
Associate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 74% 25% 46% 74%
High school 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 87% 28% 51% 87%
Less than high school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 65% 30% 45% 66%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 55% 83%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 56% 73% 125%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 15% 33% 49% 15% 33% 49%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 59%
Middle 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 67% 30% 45% 68%
Second lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 82% 38% 54% 83%
Lowest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 55% 71% 117%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 52%
Second highest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 22% 39% 62% 22% 39% 63%
Middle 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 28% 45% 72% 28% 45% 73%
Second lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 85% 35% 52% 86%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 50% 66% 103%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 83% 24% 47% 84%
Sex
Female 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 28% 52% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Male 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 80% 23% 45% 81%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 84% 29% 53% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 1% 24% 45% 85% 24% 45% 86%
Country of birth
United States 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 80%
Other countries 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 13% 0% 0% 1% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 77%
Bachelor 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 21% 42% 81% 21% 43% 81%
Associate 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 25% 46% 77% 25% 47% 78%
High school 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 87% 28% 51% 88%
Less than high school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 25% 39% 58%
Middle 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 66%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 40% 54% 81% 40% 54% 82%
Lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 57% 74% 125% 57% 74% 126%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 48% 16% 34% 49%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 59% 24% 39% 59%
Middle 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 67% 31% 45% 68%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 39% 53% 81% 39% 54% 82%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 56% 73% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 16% 35% 51% 17% 35% 51%
Second highest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 23% 40% 63% 23% 40% 63%
Middle 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 72%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 86% 35% 52% 86%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 50% 67% 104%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 23% 47% 84% 23% 47% 85%
Sex
Female 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 28% 53% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Male 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 26% 50% 88% 26% 50% 89%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 82%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 27% 52% 84% 27% 52% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 1% 22% 43% 83% 22% 44% 83%
Country of birth
United States 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 80% 23% 46% 81%
Other countries 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 26% 52% 90% 26% 52% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 13% 0% 0% 1% 21% 42% 79% 21% 43% 79%
Bachelor 0% 12% 0% 0% 1% 21% 42% 82% 21% 42% 83%
Associate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 76% 23% 46% 76%
High school 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 89%
Less than high school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 23% 39% 56% 23% 39% 56%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 46% 65%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 55% 83%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 57% 75% 133% 57% 75% 135%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 15% 33% 47% 15% 34% 48%
Second highest 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 22% 38% 58% 23% 39% 58%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 67%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 84% 39% 54% 84%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 56% 74% 124% 56% 74% 125%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 16% 35% 50% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 22% 40% 62% 22% 40% 63%
Middle 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 27% 45% 72% 27% 45% 73%
Second lowest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 35% 53% 85% 36% 53% 86%
Lowest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 51% 67% 108% 51% 67% 109%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2026.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision A6.