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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase Payroll Tax Rate

Details: From 12.4% to 16.2% in 2034 and then to 20.0% in 2064

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $492 $2,811 $8,180
Sex
Female 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $433 $2,454 $6,736
Male 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $563 $3,186 $8,990
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $401 $2,273 $6,062
White, non-Hispanic 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $550 $3,109 $8,478
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $388 $2,357 $6,632
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $615 $3,705 $8,990
Country of birth
United States 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $524 $2,901 $8,070
Other countries 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $388 $2,474 $8,686
Age
31–39 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $589 $2,869 $7,843
40–49 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $557 $3,031 $8,990
50–59 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $608 $2,979 $8,809
60–69 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $395 $2,228 $7,267
70 or older 0% 100% 27% 30% 30% $32 $2,480 $6,218
Marital status
Married 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $498 $2,882 $8,426
Divorced 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $498 $2,850 $7,850
Widowed 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $200 $2,105 $6,218
Never married 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $511 $2,726 $8,148
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $939 $4,702 $8,990
Bachelor 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $725 $3,983 $8,990
Associate 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $485 $2,590 $6,146
High school 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $369 $2,111 $5,337
Less than high school 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $265 $1,774 $4,773
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $1,794 $6,930 $8,990
Second highest 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $1,256 $4,359 $7,980
Middle 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $861 $3,251 $5,486
Second lowest 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $628 $2,506 $3,679
Lowest 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $64 $971 $2,066
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $6,088 $8,180 $8,990
Second highest 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $3,640 $4,385 $5,427
Middle 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $2,331 $2,811 $3,335
Second lowest 0% 100% 30% 30% 30% $1,211 $1,651 $2,098
Lowest 0% 99% 27% 30% 31% $32 $492 $978
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,176 $7,065 $20,734
Sex
Female 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,064 $6,223 $17,199
Male 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,338 $7,976 $22,463
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $975 $5,828 $15,635
White, non-Hispanic 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,314 $7,888 $21,161
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $975 $5,945 $16,635
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,628 $9,960 $22,463
Country of birth
United States 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,253 $7,267 $20,178
Other countries 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $983 $6,388 $22,463
Age
31–39 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,378 $7,154 $19,678
40–49 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,406 $7,610 $22,463
50–59 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,471 $7,497 $22,463
60–69 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,031 $5,671 $18,412
70 or older 0% 100% 61% 61% 63% $92 $6,674 $16,046
Marital status
Married 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,197 $7,243 $21,290
Divorced 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,265 $7,122 $20,113
Widowed 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $395 $5,469 $15,300
Never married 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,168 $6,880 $20,754
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $2,184 $11,495 $22,463
Bachelor 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,757 $10,351 $22,463
Associate 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,136 $6,517 $15,792
High school 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $919 $5,356 $13,345
Less than high school 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $657 $4,462 $11,798
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $4,639 $17,711 $22,463
Second highest 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $3,216 $11,092 $20,194
Middle 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $2,337 $8,158 $13,684
Second lowest 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $1,527 $6,183 $9,194
Lowest 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $141 $2,406 $5,159
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $15,397 $20,726 $22,463
Second highest 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $9,157 $11,072 $13,692
Middle 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $5,868 $7,065 $8,388
Second lowest 0% 100% 61% 61% 61% $3,031 $4,147 $5,292
Lowest 0% 100% 61% 61% 63% $92 $1,176 $2,450
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,958 0 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,507 0 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 672 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,943 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 577 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 273 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,486 0 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 979 0 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,655 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,346 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 646 0 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,175 0 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 813 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 832 832 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 322 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 694 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,593 0 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 765 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,355 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 664 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 189 0 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 3,782 0 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,099 0 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,683 1,683 0 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 1,058 1,058 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,741 1,741 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 657 657 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 326 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,511 0 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,271 0 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,402 1,402 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,337 1,337 0 0%
80–89 4% 4% 873 873 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 711 0 0%
Divorced 7% 7% 1,070 1,070 0 0%
Widowed 5% 5% 817 817 0 0%
Never married 12% 12% 1,183 1,183 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 169 169 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 344 0 0%
Associate 3% 3% 630 630 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,694 1,694 0 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 944 944 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,782 3,782 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 2,839 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 508 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 218 218 0 0%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 216 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,822 2,822 0 0%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,527 1,527 0 0%
Male 3% 3% 1,296 1,296 0 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 4% 963 963 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,125 1,125 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 426 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 309 309 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,770 1,770 0 0%
Other countries 5% 5% 1,052 1,052 0 0%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 945 0 0%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 1,057 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 628 628 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 192 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 470 0 0%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 687 0 0%
Widowed 3% 3% 486 486 0 0%
Never married 7% 7% 1,179 1,179 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 156 0 0%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 216 0 0%
Associate 2% 2% 460 460 0 0%
High school 4% 4% 1,229 1,229 0 0%
Less than high school 8% 8% 761 761 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,822 2,822 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 2,197 2,197 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 314 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 156 156 0 0%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 25% 0% -4% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 142% 447%
Sex
Female 25% 0% -5% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 180% 643%
Male 25% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 117% 264%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 21% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 160% 569%
White, non-Hispanic 28% 0% -5% 0% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 138% 404%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 19% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 146% 473%
All other races, non-Hispanic 26% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 143% 505%
Country of birth
United States 26% 0% -4% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 138% 413%
Other countries 24% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 161% 595%
Highest education level
Graduate 45% 0% -7% 0% 0% 23% 125% 264% 23% 122% 257%
Bachelor 37% 0% -6% 0% 0% 22% 137% 362% 22% 134% 356%
Associate 23% 0% -4% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 144% 391%
High school 19% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 151% 518%
Less than high school 11% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 159% 803%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 47% 0% -6% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 39% 105% 156%
Second highest 30% 0% -4% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 131% 200%
Middle 21% 0% -3% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 158% 269%
Second lowest 17% 0% -3% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504% 23% 225% 504%
Lowest 12% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 247% 1,557%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 55% 0% -6% -1% 0% 47% 108% 152% 46% 105% 150%
Second highest 30% 0% -4% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 133% 200%
Middle 20% 0% -3% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 160% 264%
Second lowest 16% 0% -3% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 216% 450%
Lowest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 305% 1,581%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 54% 0% -6% -1% 0% 56% 115% 194% 55% 112% 191%
Second highest 30% 0% -4% 0% 0% 36% 139% 269% 36% 136% 268%
Middle 21% 0% -3% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 157% 359%
Second lowest 15% 0% -3% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 182% 514%
Lowest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 204% 1,134%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -18% -10% -1% 0% 129% 404% 0% 115% 368%
Sex
Female 80% 0% -19% -11% 0% 0% 156% 570% 0% 138% 519%
Male 78% 0% -16% -10% -1% 0% 110% 275% 0% 98% 249%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 71% 0% -19% -10% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 119% 407%
White, non-Hispanic 84% 0% -17% -10% -1% 11% 130% 403% 10% 116% 368%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 74% 0% -16% -9% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 115% 331%
All other races, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -22% -12% -3% 0% 104% 383% 0% 91% 327%
Country of birth
United States 82% 0% -16% -10% -1% 6% 130% 369% 6% 116% 334%
Other countries 67% 0% -23% -11% -1% 0% 125% 602% 0% 110% 531%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -19% -12% -5% 17% 113% 278% 15% 98% 246%
Bachelor 86% 0% -18% -12% -4% 5% 117% 311% 4% 103% 274%
Associate 81% 0% -16% -9% -1% 0% 133% 348% 0% 120% 321%
High school 74% 0% -16% -9% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 129% 493%
Less than high school 64% 0% -21% -9% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 119% 571%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 99% 0% -16% -11% -7% 40% 96% 138% 35% 84% 123%
Second highest 94% 0% -15% -10% -5% 31% 128% 192% 28% 114% 173%
Middle 87% 0% -16% -9% -2% 26% 157% 271% 24% 141% 248%
Second lowest 72% 0% -18% -9% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 196% 529%
Lowest 41% 0% -23% -11% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 106% 1,853%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 99% 0% -17% -12% -7% 42% 96% 137% 37% 84% 121%
Second highest 95% 0% -15% -10% -5% 39% 129% 194% 35% 115% 173%
Middle 89% 0% -16% -9% -2% 24% 159% 274% 22% 142% 247%
Second lowest 76% 0% -19% -9% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 193% 460%
Lowest 34% 0% -23% -7% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 82% 1,991%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 99% 0% -17% -12% -7% 46% 99% 163% 41% 86% 143%
Second highest 95% 0% -16% -10% -5% 44% 131% 267% 39% 116% 241%
Middle 89% 0% -16% -9% -2% 35% 158% 359% 32% 141% 329%
Second lowest 75% 0% -19% -8% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 169% 539%
Lowest 35% 0% -23% -8% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 34% 967%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 87% 0% -28% -22% -15% 0% 120% 357% 0% 92% 283%
Sex
Female 89% 0% -28% -23% -15% 5% 145% 519% 4% 111% 412%
Male 85% 0% -27% -22% -15% 0% 103% 246% 0% 79% 194%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 83% 0% -28% -22% -15% 0% 125% 401% 0% 97% 318%
White, non-Hispanic 91% 0% -27% -22% -15% 17% 120% 343% 14% 93% 273%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 84% 0% -27% -21% -14% 0% 118% 333% 0% 91% 270%
All other races, non-Hispanic 83% 0% -30% -24% -18% 0% 105% 349% 0% 80% 259%
Country of birth
United States 90% 0% -27% -22% -14% 9% 120% 319% 7% 93% 255%
Other countries 77% 0% -30% -24% -18% 0% 121% 565% 0% 91% 428%
Highest education level
Graduate 94% 0% -29% -25% -19% 21% 109% 259% 16% 81% 195%
Bachelor 92% 0% -28% -24% -18% 13% 110% 278% 9% 83% 216%
Associate 89% 0% -26% -21% -15% 0% 124% 318% 0% 96% 251%
High school 85% 0% -26% -21% -13% 0% 129% 441% 0% 101% 355%
Less than high school 77% 0% -28% -22% -13% 0% 125% 594% 0% 97% 480%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 99% 0% -28% -24% -20% 40% 88% 127% 30% 66% 96%
Second highest 97% 0% -27% -22% -18% 34% 118% 177% 27% 91% 136%
Middle 95% 0% -27% -21% -16% 30% 144% 246% 23% 113% 196%
Second lowest 90% 0% -28% -20% -11% 9% 196% 466% 7% 155% 374%
Lowest 56% 0% -34% -23% -5% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 94% 1,432%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 99% 0% -28% -24% -20% 43% 89% 127% 32% 67% 95%
Second highest 97% 0% -27% -22% -18% 38% 119% 179% 30% 92% 138%
Middle 95% 0% -27% -21% -16% 27% 144% 249% 21% 113% 195%
Second lowest 91% 0% -28% -20% -12% 13% 192% 442% 10% 150% 351%
Lowest 53% 0% -32% -23% -4% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 96% 1,502%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 99% 0% -28% -24% -20% 45% 91% 145% 34% 68% 110%
Second highest 98% 0% -27% -22% -18% 46% 122% 227% 36% 94% 177%
Middle 95% 0% -27% -21% -16% 31% 140% 302% 25% 109% 238%
Second lowest 90% 0% -28% -20% -12% 11% 172% 532% 9% 135% 435%
Lowest 53% 0% -31% -22% -6% 0% 80% 996% 0% 62% 808%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 88% 0% -36% -32% -27% 0% 125% 366% 0% 84% 250%
Sex
Female 90% 0% -36% -32% -27% 1% 149% 531% 1% 101% 362%
Male 85% 0% -35% -32% -27% 0% 107% 252% 0% 72% 173%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 84% 0% -37% -32% -27% 0% 129% 400% 0% 88% 271%
White, non-Hispanic 93% 0% -35% -32% -27% 21% 126% 363% 14% 85% 250%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 84% 0% -35% -31% -26% 0% 121% 306% 0% 83% 211%
All other races, non-Hispanic 83% 0% -37% -33% -28% 0% 113% 335% 0% 75% 222%
Country of birth
United States 91% 0% -34% -32% -27% 11% 125% 324% 7% 85% 224%
Other countries 78% 0% -38% -33% -28% 0% 123% 516% 0% 82% 336%
Highest education level
Graduate 94% 0% -36% -33% -29% 30% 116% 286% 20% 77% 190%
Bachelor 92% 0% -36% -33% -29% 9% 115% 300% 6% 77% 198%
Associate 89% 0% -34% -31% -27% 0% 129% 325% 0% 88% 223%
High school 86% 0% -35% -31% -26% 0% 133% 439% 0% 90% 300%
Less than high school 78% 0% -38% -32% -25% 0% 129% 578% 0% 87% 390%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 99% 0% -35% -33% -31% 45% 95% 133% 30% 64% 88%
Second highest 97% 0% -34% -32% -29% 43% 124% 181% 29% 84% 121%
Middle 93% 0% -35% -31% -27% 23% 149% 251% 16% 102% 171%
Second lowest 90% 0% -36% -31% -24% 0% 208% 500% 0% 142% 348%
Lowest 58% 0% -38% -33% -23% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 83% 1,064%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 99% 0% -35% -33% -31% 46% 95% 133% 31% 64% 88%
Second highest 97% 0% -34% -32% -29% 44% 123% 182% 30% 83% 123%
Middle 94% 0% -35% -31% -27% 30% 149% 254% 21% 102% 173%
Second lowest 90% 0% -36% -31% -25% 2% 202% 466% 1% 138% 321%
Lowest 57% 0% -38% -33% -23% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 84% 1,101%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 100% 0% -35% -33% -30% 50% 98% 152% 34% 66% 102%
Second highest 98% 0% -35% -32% -29% 46% 125% 235% 31% 84% 161%
Middle 95% 0% -35% -31% -28% 36% 146% 316% 25% 100% 216%
Second lowest 91% 0% -36% -31% -25% 8% 183% 543% 6% 125% 379%
Lowest 55% 0% -38% -32% -23% 0% 73% 797% 0% 50% 551%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 80%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 48% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 29% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 42% 72%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 76%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 76%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 83%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 44% 64%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 79%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 70% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 34% 50%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 66%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 81%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 36% 54% 17% 36% 54%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 63%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 70%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 86%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 82% 24% 47% 82%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 52% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 71% 22% 43% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 78% 23% 45% 78%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 26% 51% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 81%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 78% 23% 46% 78%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 53% 90% 26% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 41% 74% 21% 41% 74%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 79%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 74% 24% 46% 74%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 87% 28% 50% 87%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 65% 30% 45% 65%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 55% 82%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 56% 73% 124%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 33% 49% 15% 33% 49%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 58%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 67% 30% 45% 67%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 82% 38% 54% 82%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 55% 71% 116%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 39% 62% 22% 39% 62%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 45% 72% 28% 45% 72%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 85% 35% 52% 85%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 50% 66% 102%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 83% 24% 47% 83%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 89%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 80% 23% 45% 80%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 84% 29% 53% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 85% 24% 45% 85%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 80%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 77%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 81% 21% 42% 81%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 46% 77% 25% 46% 77%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 87% 28% 51% 87%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 16% 31% 46%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 39% 57%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 54% 81% 40% 54% 81%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 74% 125% 57% 74% 125%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 48% 15% 34% 48%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 59% 24% 39% 59%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 67% 31% 45% 67%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 53% 81% 39% 53% 81%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 56% 73% 118%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 40% 63% 23% 40% 63%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 72%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 86% 35% 52% 86%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 50% 67% 104%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 47% 84% 23% 47% 84%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 50% 88% 26% 50% 88%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 81%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 52% 84% 27% 52% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 83% 22% 43% 83%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 80% 23% 46% 80%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 52% 90% 26% 52% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 79%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 82% 21% 42% 82%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 76% 23% 46% 76%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 89%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 39% 56% 23% 39% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 55% 82%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 75% 133% 57% 75% 133%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 33% 47% 15% 33% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 38% 58% 22% 38% 58%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 66%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 84% 38% 54% 84%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 74% 124% 56% 74% 124%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 50% 16% 35% 50%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 40% 62% 22% 40% 62%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 45% 72% 27% 45% 72%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 53% 85% 35% 53% 85%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 67% 108% 51% 67% 108%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: FICA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2034.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision E1.2.