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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Price Index the Primary Insurance Amount (PIA)
Formula for Earners Above the 30th Percentile

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 36% 6% -9% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 31% 6% -8% 0% 0%
Male 42% 6% -11% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 32% 5% -7% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 38% 7% -10% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 32% 5% -8% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 37% 6% -10% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 38% 7% -10% 0% 0%
Other countries 30% 5% -8% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 61% 0% -14% -3% 0%
70–79 51% 3% -8% -1% 0%
80–89 1% 20% 0% 0% 2%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 42% 6% -10% 0% 0%
Divorced 38% 6% -9% 0% 0%
Widowed 16% 7% -3% 0% 0%
Never married 39% 3% -10% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 47% 8% -12% 0% 0%
Bachelor 41% 8% -10% 0% 0%
Associate 38% 6% -9% 0% 0%
High school 29% 5% -7% 0% 0%
Less than high school 26% 3% -6% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 38% 7% -9% 0% 0%
In poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 49% 8% -13% 0% 0%
Second highest 47% 8% -11% 0% 0%
Middle 40% 7% -9% 0% 0%
Second lowest 31% 6% -6% 0% 0%
Lowest 13% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 39% 6% -10% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 18% 6% -4% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 42% 8% -9% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 47% 1% -11% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 70% 1% -24% -8% 0%
Sex
Female 66% 1% -23% -6% 0%
Male 75% 0% -26% -10% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 59% 0% -21% -4% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 76% 1% -25% -10% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 63% 0% -23% -5% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 71% 1% -28% -10% 0%
Country of birth
United States 74% 1% -25% -9% 0%
Other countries 58% 1% -24% -4% 0%
Age
60–69 65% 0% -30% -9% 0%
70–79 72% 0% -24% -10% 0%
80–89 77% 0% -18% -9% 0%
90 or older 63% 6% -9% -3% 0%
Marital status
Married 74% 0% -26% -10% 0%
Divorced 73% 1% -25% -9% 0%
Widowed 66% 3% -19% -5% 0%
Never married 62% 0% -25% -6% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 86% 1% -28% -16% 0%
Bachelor 81% 1% -27% -13% 0%
Associate 72% 1% -22% -7% 0%
High school 62% 0% -20% -4% 0%
Less than high school 45% 0% -17% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 73% 1% -25% -9% 0%
In poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 89% 1% -29% -18% 0%
Second highest 84% 1% -26% -14% 0%
Middle 80% 1% -23% -10% 0%
Second lowest 69% 1% -18% -5% 0%
Lowest 30% 0% -7% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 72% 0% -25% -9% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 66% 3% -19% -5% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 74% 0% -24% -9% 0%
Disabled worker only 55% 0% -24% -2% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 30% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 26% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Male 35% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 26% 2% -3% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 32% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 27% 2% -3% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 28% 2% -2% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 32% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Other countries 23% 2% -2% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 55% 0% -5% -1% 0%
70–79 38% 1% -3% 0% 0%
80–89 1% 6% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 36% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Divorced 31% 3% -3% 0% 0%
Widowed 11% 3% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 31% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 37% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Bachelor 33% 3% -3% 0% 0%
Associate 32% 2% -3% 0% 0%
High school 25% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Less than high school 22% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 31% 2% -3% 0% 0%
In poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second highest 38% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Middle 36% 3% -4% 0% 0%
Second lowest 30% 4% -4% 0% 0%
Lowest 12% 2% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 32% 2% -3% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 15% 3% -2% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 35% 4% -4% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 43% 0% -5% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 69% 0% -10% -3% 0%
Sex
Female 66% 0% -10% -3% 0%
Male 71% 0% -11% -3% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 58% 0% -10% -2% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -10% -3% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 60% 0% -10% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -10% -2% 0%
Country of birth
United States 72% 0% -10% -3% 0%
Other countries 56% 0% -10% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 64% 0% -12% -3% 0%
70–79 72% 0% -11% -4% 0%
80–89 76% 0% -8% -3% 0%
90 or older 52% 2% -4% -1% 0%
Marital status
Married 76% 0% -10% -4% 0%
Divorced 69% 0% -12% -3% 0%
Widowed 61% 1% -9% -2% 0%
Never married 57% 0% -10% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 84% 0% -11% -4% 0%
Bachelor 78% 0% -10% -4% 0%
Associate 71% 0% -10% -3% 0%
High school 61% 0% -10% -2% 0%
Less than high school 44% 0% -9% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 71% 0% -10% -3% 0%
In poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 81% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Second highest 82% 0% -10% -4% 0%
Middle 81% 0% -13% -5% 0%
Second lowest 71% 0% -14% -4% 0%
Lowest 29% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 71% 0% -10% -3% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 61% 1% -11% -2% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 72% 0% -13% -4% 0%
Disabled worker only 53% 0% -12% -1% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,958 0 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,507 0 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 672 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,943 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 577 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 273 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,486 0 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 979 0 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,655 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,346 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 646 0 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,175 0 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 813 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 832 832 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 322 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 694 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,593 0 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 765 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,355 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 664 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 189 0 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 3,789 7 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,102 3 0%
Male 4% 4% 1,683 1,686 3 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 1,058 1,058 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,741 1,748 7 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 657 657 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 326 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,518 7 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,271 0 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,402 1,409 7 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,337 1,337 0 0%
80–89 4% 4% 873 873 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 713 1 0%
Divorced 7% 7% 1,070 1,074 3 0%
Widowed 5% 5% 817 819 1 0%
Never married 12% 12% 1,183 1,183 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 169 169 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 344 0 0%
Associate 3% 3% 630 630 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,694 1,700 5 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 944 945 1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 2,841 1 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 508 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 218 223 5 2%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 216 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,822 2,826 3 0%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,527 1,528 1 0%
Male 3% 3% 1,296 1,297 1 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 4% 963 963 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,125 1,128 3 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 426 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 309 309 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,770 1,773 3 0%
Other countries 5% 5% 1,052 1,052 0 0%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 945 0 0%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 1,059 1 0%
80–89 3% 3% 628 630 1 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 192 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 470 0 0%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 690 3 0%
Widowed 3% 3% 486 486 0 0%
Never married 7% 7% 1,179 1,179 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 156 0 0%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 216 0 0%
Associate 2% 2% 460 460 0 0%
High school 4% 4% 1,229 1,233 3 0%
Less than high school 8% 8% 761 761 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 2,197 2,197 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 314 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 156 159 3 2%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450%      
Sex
Female 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644%      
Male 1% 10% 0% 0% 1% 0% 119% 266%      
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race — — — — — 0% 162% 569%      
White, non-Hispanic — — — — — 15% 140% 406%      
Black or African American, non-Hispanic — — — — — 0% 149% 473%      
All other races, non-Hispanic — — — — — 0% 146% 508%      
Country of birth
United States 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416%      
Other countries 1% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599%      
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 15% 0% 0% 2% 23% 125% 264%      
Bachelor 1% 13% 0% 0% 2% 22% 137% 362%      
Associate 1% 8% 0% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393%      
High school 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519%      
Less than high school 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803%      
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 3% 39% 108% 157%      
Second highest 0% 13% 0% 0% 1% 24% 134% 201%      
Middle 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270%      
Second lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504%      
Lowest 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561%      
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 22% 0% 0% 3% 47% 108% 152%      
Second highest 0% 14% 0% 0% 1% 25% 136% 202%      
Middle 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267%      
Second lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454%      
Lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585%      
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 22% 0% 0% 3% 56% 115% 194%      
Second highest 1% 12% 0% 0% 1% 36% 139% 269%      
Middle 1% 6% 0% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363%      
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516%      
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138%      
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile; — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 58% 0% -16% -5% 0% 0% 129% 404% 0% 118% 389%
Sex
Female 56% 1% -15% -4% 0% 0% 156% 570% 0% 148% 545%
Male 59% 0% -16% -7% 0% 0% 110% 275% 0% 99% 271%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 42% 0% -13% -1% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 126% 441%
White, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -16% -7% 0% 11% 130% 403% 11% 118% 388%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 43% 0% -14% -1% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 122% 350%
All other races, non-Hispanic 54% 0% -17% -7% 0% 0% 104% 383% 0% 91% 371%
Country of birth
United States 63% 0% -16% -6% 0% 6% 130% 369% 6% 119% 353%
Other countries 40% 0% -15% -2% 0% 0% 125% 602% 0% 116% 576%
Highest education level
Graduate 81% 0% -18% -12% 0% 17% 113% 278% 15% 97% 268%
Bachelor 74% 0% -17% -10% 0% 5% 117% 311% 4% 104% 303%
Associate 60% 1% -14% -4% 0% 0% 133% 348% 0% 124% 339%
High school 48% 0% -12% -2% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 136% 520%
Less than high school 30% 0% -9% 0% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 127% 620%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 99% 0% -19% -15% -11% 40% 96% 138% 33% 81% 119%
Second highest 94% 0% -12% -8% -4% 31% 128% 192% 29% 116% 177%
Middle 55% 1% -6% -1% 0% 26% 157% 271% 25% 153% 261%
Second lowest 22% 1% -8% 0% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 218% 541%
Lowest 19% 0% -9% 0% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 119% 1,976%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 99% 0% -19% -15% -11% 42% 96% 137% 36% 81% 118%
Second highest 95% 0% -12% -8% -5% 39% 129% 194% 35% 118% 178%
Middle 60% 1% -6% -2% 0% 24% 159% 274% 23% 155% 262%
Second lowest 20% 1% -7% 0% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 213% 477%
Lowest 15% 0% -8% 0% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 95% 2,098%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 99% 0% -19% -15% -10% 46% 99% 163% 39% 84% 143%
Second highest 94% 0% -14% -9% -4% 44% 131% 267% 39% 119% 244%
Middle 71% 1% -9% -3% 0% 35% 158% 359% 34% 151% 344%
Second lowest 22% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 188% 564%
Lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 38% 1,044%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 63% 0% -31% -12% 0% 0% 120% 357% 0% 100% 330%
Sex
Female 63% 0% -30% -10% 0% 5% 145% 519% 4% 127% 470%
Male 63% 0% -32% -14% 0% 0% 103% 246% 0% 80% 236%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 52% 0% -27% -6% 0% 0% 125% 401% 0% 109% 383%
White, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -31% -16% 0% 17% 120% 343% 14% 98% 308%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 50% 0% -28% -4% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 102% 325%
All other races, non-Hispanic 62% 0% -34% -18% 0% 0% 105% 349% 0% 78% 323%
Country of birth
United States 68% 0% -31% -13% 0% 9% 120% 319% 8% 99% 295%
Other countries 46% 0% -31% -6% 0% 0% 121% 565% 0% 103% 523%
Highest education level
Graduate 84% 0% -34% -25% 0% 21% 109% 259% 17% 80% 235%
Bachelor 78% 0% -33% -23% 0% 13% 110% 278% 10% 83% 253%
Associate 66% 0% -28% -11% 0% 0% 124% 318% 0% 105% 295%
High school 54% 0% -26% -5% 0% 0% 129% 441% 0% 114% 416%
Less than high school 37% 0% -23% 0% 0% 0% 125% 594% 0% 113% 561%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 99% 0% -35% -30% -25% 40% 88% 127% 27% 60% 91%
Second highest 96% 0% -25% -18% -11% 34% 118% 177% 28% 96% 145%
Middle 69% 0% -15% -5% 0% 30% 144% 246% 28% 134% 227%
Second lowest 28% 0% -14% 0% 0% 9% 196% 466% 9% 191% 432%
Lowest 22% 0% -22% 0% 0% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 116% 1,589%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 99% 0% -35% -30% -26% 43% 89% 127% 29% 61% 91%
Second highest 97% 0% -25% -18% -11% 38% 119% 179% 30% 97% 145%
Middle 74% 0% -14% -5% 0% 27% 144% 249% 26% 134% 227%
Second lowest 26% 0% -14% 0% 0% 13% 192% 442% 13% 188% 402%
Lowest 18% 0% -18% 0% 0% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 124% 1,640%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 99% 0% -35% -30% -23% 45% 91% 145% 31% 63% 109%
Second highest 97% 0% -28% -19% -10% 46% 122% 227% 36% 97% 187%
Middle 81% 0% -20% -8% 0% 31% 140% 302% 28% 127% 275%
Second lowest 33% 0% -10% 0% 0% 11% 172% 532% 11% 169% 504%
Lowest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 80% 974%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 63% 0% -43% -17% 0% 0% 125% 366% 0% 96% 329%
Sex
Female 63% 0% -41% -14% 0% 1% 149% 531% 1% 124% 462%
Male 63% 0% -45% -20% 0% 0% 107% 252% 0% 75% 238%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 53% 0% -39% -9% 0% 0% 129% 400% 0% 107% 371%
White, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -44% -23% 0% 21% 126% 363% 14% 93% 320%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 51% 0% -39% -6% 0% 0% 121% 306% 0% 98% 294%
All other races, non-Hispanic 64% 0% -47% -27% 0% 0% 113% 335% 0% 73% 305%
Country of birth
United States 69% 0% -43% -18% 0% 11% 125% 324% 8% 96% 296%
Other countries 48% 0% -44% -10% 0% 0% 123% 516% 0% 94% 464%
Highest education level
Graduate 82% 0% -47% -35% 0% 30% 116% 286% 19% 74% 251%
Bachelor 77% 0% -46% -32% 0% 9% 115% 300% 7% 75% 268%
Associate 66% 0% -39% -16% 0% 0% 129% 325% 0% 104% 302%
High school 54% 0% -36% -8% 0% 0% 133% 439% 0% 111% 389%
Less than high school 39% 0% -30% 0% 0% 0% 129% 578% 0% 114% 521%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 99% 0% -48% -42% -36% 45% 95% 133% 26% 53% 81%
Second highest 97% 0% -35% -25% -15% 43% 124% 181% 32% 91% 137%
Middle 68% 0% -21% -7% 0% 23% 149% 251% 21% 135% 222%
Second lowest 28% 0% -19% 0% 0% 0% 208% 500% 0% 201% 435%
Lowest 21% 0% -32% 0% 0% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 115% 1,317%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 99% 0% -48% -42% -36% 46% 95% 133% 26% 54% 81%
Second highest 97% 0% -35% -26% -16% 44% 123% 182% 33% 91% 136%
Middle 73% 0% -19% -8% 0% 30% 149% 254% 28% 136% 225%
Second lowest 27% 0% -20% 0% 0% 2% 202% 466% 1% 196% 398%
Lowest 18% 0% -29% 0% 0% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 121% 1,374%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 100% 0% -48% -42% -32% 50% 98% 152% 29% 55% 100%
Second highest 97% 0% -39% -27% -14% 46% 125% 235% 33% 90% 183%
Middle 81% 0% -28% -11% 0% 36% 146% 316% 32% 128% 272%
Second lowest 33% 0% -14% 0% 0% 8% 183% 543% 8% 180% 503%
Lowest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 73% 797% 0% 72% 770%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 80%
Sex
Female 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 28% 51% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 49% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 45% 76%
Other countries 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 29% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 15% 0% 0% 2% 21% 42% 72% 22% 42% 72%
Bachelor 0% 13% 0% 0% 2% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 76%
Associate 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 76%
High school 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 83%
Less than high school 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 24% 0% 0% 3% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 48%
Second highest 0% 16% 0% 0% 1% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 44% 64%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 79%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 70% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 23% 0% 0% 3% 15% 34% 50% 16% 34% 51%
Second highest 0% 15% 0% 0% 1% 22% 37% 57% 23% 37% 58%
Middle 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 66%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 81%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 22% 0% 0% 3% 17% 36% 54% 17% 37% 54%
Second highest 0% 13% 0% 0% 1% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 63%
Middle 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 70%
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 86%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 62% 0% -17% -4% 0% 24% 47% 82% 20% 44% 81%
Sex
Female 55% 1% -15% -2% 0% 27% 52% 90% 24% 50% 90%
Male 68% 0% -18% -7% 0% 22% 43% 71% 18% 39% 70%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 49% 1% -14% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 24% 50% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -18% -6% 0% 23% 45% 78% 19% 41% 77%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 47% 0% -14% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 22% 49% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -19% -8% 0% 22% 45% 81% 18% 42% 80%
Country of birth
United States 64% 0% -17% -5% 0% 23% 46% 78% 20% 43% 77%
Other countries 52% 0% -16% -1% 0% 26% 53% 90% 23% 51% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 84% 0% -21% -12% 0% 21% 41% 74% 17% 36% 72%
Bachelor 78% 0% -20% -10% 0% 21% 42% 79% 17% 38% 76%
Associate 61% 0% -15% -3% 0% 24% 46% 74% 21% 44% 73%
High school 50% 0% -13% 0% 0% 28% 50% 87% 24% 49% 86%
Less than high school 37% 0% -10% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 28% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 100% 0% -29% -16% -12% 15% 31% 46% 11% 26% 39%
Second highest 99% 0% -18% -10% -7% 23% 38% 56% 19% 34% 50%
Middle 88% 1% -7% -4% 0% 30% 45% 65% 28% 43% 62%
Second lowest 14% 1% -1% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 54% 80%
Lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 56% 73% 121%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 100% 0% -30% -16% -12% 15% 33% 49% 10% 28% 41%
Second highest 98% 0% -17% -10% -6% 22% 37% 58% 19% 33% 53%
Middle 84% 1% -7% -4% 0% 30% 45% 67% 28% 43% 65%
Second lowest 18% 1% -2% 0% 0% 38% 54% 82% 38% 53% 81%
Lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 55% 71% 113%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 98% 0% -29% -15% -10% 16% 35% 51% 11% 29% 44%
Second highest 93% 0% -18% -10% -2% 22% 39% 62% 18% 35% 57%
Middle 79% 1% -11% -5% 0% 28% 45% 72% 25% 43% 69%
Second lowest 36% 1% -5% 0% 0% 35% 52% 85% 33% 52% 84%
Lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 49% 66% 101%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 66% 0% -33% -11% 0% 24% 47% 83% 17% 41% 81%
Sex
Female 61% 0% -31% -7% 0% 28% 52% 90% 21% 47% 90%
Male 72% 0% -34% -14% 0% 22% 43% 72% 15% 36% 70%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 57% 0% -29% -4% 0% 27% 50% 89% 20% 46% 88%
White, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -34% -15% 0% 23% 45% 80% 16% 38% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 56% 0% -30% -3% 0% 29% 53% 84% 22% 48% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -35% -18% 0% 24% 45% 85% 16% 37% 82%
Country of birth
United States 69% 0% -33% -12% 0% 24% 46% 80% 17% 40% 77%
Other countries 56% 0% -33% -5% 0% 27% 53% 90% 20% 48% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 86% 0% -36% -25% 0% 22% 42% 77% 14% 32% 70%
Bachelor 80% 0% -37% -23% 0% 21% 42% 81% 14% 33% 77%
Associate 67% 0% -30% -9% 0% 25% 46% 77% 19% 41% 75%
High school 55% 0% -27% -3% 0% 28% 51% 87% 21% 47% 86%
Less than high school 42% 0% -25% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 24% 54% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 100% 0% -53% -31% -27% 16% 31% 46% 7% 22% 32%
Second highest 100% 0% -32% -22% -15% 24% 39% 57% 17% 31% 45%
Middle 92% 0% -17% -9% -1% 31% 45% 65% 27% 41% 58%
Second lowest 28% 0% -6% 0% 0% 40% 54% 81% 40% 53% 79%
Lowest 12% 0% -4% 0% 0% 57% 74% 125% 57% 73% 119%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 100% 0% -54% -31% -27% 15% 34% 48% 7% 23% 34%
Second highest 100% 0% -32% -22% -15% 24% 39% 59% 16% 30% 47%
Middle 91% 0% -17% -9% -1% 31% 45% 67% 26% 40% 61%
Second lowest 30% 0% -5% 0% 0% 39% 53% 81% 38% 53% 80%
Lowest 12% 0% -3% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 55% 72% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 99% 0% -52% -31% -24% 16% 35% 51% 8% 24% 37%
Second highest 95% 0% -33% -22% -7% 23% 40% 63% 15% 32% 54%
Middle 85% 0% -24% -11% 0% 29% 45% 72% 23% 40% 66%
Second lowest 46% 0% -13% 0% 0% 35% 52% 86% 32% 51% 83%
Lowest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 49% 67% 103%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 67% 0% -46% -16% 0% 23% 47% 84% 14% 39% 81%
Sex
Female 62% 0% -44% -10% 0% 28% 53% 90% 17% 46% 90%
Male 73% 0% -48% -21% 0% 22% 43% 72% 12% 33% 68%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 59% 0% -42% -7% 0% 26% 50% 88% 16% 44% 85%
White, non-Hispanic 74% 0% -48% -22% 0% 22% 45% 81% 12% 34% 77%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 58% 0% -41% -5% 0% 27% 52% 84% 18% 45% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -49% -28% 0% 22% 43% 83% 12% 31% 77%
Country of birth
United States 70% 0% -46% -17% 0% 23% 46% 80% 13% 37% 77%
Other countries 59% 0% -46% -9% 0% 26% 52% 90% 16% 44% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 84% 0% -50% -36% 0% 21% 42% 79% 11% 28% 72%
Bachelor 81% 0% -51% -34% 0% 21% 42% 82% 10% 28% 77%
Associate 69% 0% -43% -15% 0% 23% 46% 76% 14% 39% 73%
High school 57% 0% -39% -6% 0% 27% 50% 89% 18% 45% 86%
Less than high school 45% 0% -33% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 22% 53% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 100% 0% -80% -44% -39% 15% 31% 46% 3% 18% 26%
Second highest 100% 0% -47% -31% -21% 23% 39% 56% 13% 27% 39%
Middle 92% 0% -25% -13% -2% 31% 45% 65% 25% 39% 55%
Second lowest 30% 0% -11% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 38% 54% 78%
Lowest 14% 0% -7% 0% 0% 57% 75% 133% 56% 74% 124%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 100% 0% -80% -44% -39% 15% 33% 47% 3% 18% 28%
Second highest 100% 0% -48% -31% -21% 22% 38% 58% 12% 27% 42%
Middle 93% 0% -25% -13% -2% 31% 45% 66% 24% 38% 58%
Second lowest 30% 0% -10% 0% 0% 38% 54% 84% 37% 53% 80%
Lowest 13% 0% -6% 0% 0% 56% 74% 124% 56% 72% 117%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 99% 0% -76% -44% -35% 16% 35% 50% 4% 19% 31%
Second highest 96% 0% -47% -31% -13% 22% 40% 62% 12% 28% 49%
Middle 86% 0% -35% -16% 0% 27% 45% 72% 19% 38% 64%
Second lowest 46% 0% -18% 0% 0% 35% 53% 85% 31% 50% 82%
Lowest 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 67% 108% 50% 67% 107%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2030.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision B1.2.