Summary of Provisions That Would Change the Social Security Program

Description of proposed provisions Change from current law
[percent of payroll]
Shortfall eliminated
Long-range
actuarial
balance
Annual
balance in
75th year
Long-range
actuarial
balance
Annual
balance in
75th year
Category: Provisions Affecting Cost-of-Living Adjustment (2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions)
Current law shortfall in long-range actuarial balance is 3.61 percent of payroll and in annual balance for the 75th year is 4.35 percent of payroll.
A1 Starting December 2024, reduce the annual COLA by 1 percentage point.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
1.95 2.47 54% 57%
A2 Starting December 2024, reduce the annual COLA by 0.5 percentage point.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
1.02 1.30 28% 30%
A3 Starting December 2024, compute the COLA using a chained version of the consumer price index for wage and salary workers (CPI-W). We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ribble 2016) | memo (FY 2014 Budget) | memo (Chaffetz 2011) | memo (Becerra 2011) | memo (Fiscal Commission 2010) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center 2010) | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.62 0.80 17% 18%
A4 Starting December 2026, compute the COLA using a chained version of the consumer price index for wage and salary workers (CPI-W). We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average. The new COLA will not apply to DI benefits. It will apply to OASI benefits, except for those of formerly disabled-workers who converted to retired-worker status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA 2010)
0.48 0.63 13% 14%
A5 Starting December 2024, add 1 percentage point to the annual COLA for beneficiaries who have lived past a "specified age". The "specified age" is the sum of: (1) 65 and (2) the unisex cohort life expectancy at age 65.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Senate Special Committee on Aging 2010)
-0.13 -0.14 -3% -3%
A6 Starting December 2025, compute the COLA using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E). We estimate this new computation will increase the annual COLA by about 0.2 percentage point, on average.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders 2023) | memo (Deutch, Hirono 2022) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2022) | memo (Lawson 2021) | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen September 2019) | memo (Deutch, Hirono 2019) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2019) | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen January 2019) | memo (Deutch, Hirono 2017) | memo (Lawson 2017) | memo (Larson 2017) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2017) | memo (Sanchez 2016) | memo (Sanders 2016) | memo (Schatz 2015) | memo (Deutch 2015) | memo (DeFazio 2015) | memo (Sanders 2015) | memo (Larson 2015) | memo (Larson 2014) | memo (Harkin 2013) | memo (Harkin 2012) | memo (Becerra 2011) | memo (Deutch 2010)
-0.42 -0.56 -12% -13%
A7 Starting December 2024, reduce the annual COLA by 1 percentage point, but not to less than zero. In cases where the unreduced COLA is less than 1 percentage point, do not carry over the unused reduction into future years.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Hutchison 2011)
1.84 2.33 51% 54%
A8 Starting December 2024, for OASI beneficiaries only (DI beneficiaries would only be affected when their benefit converts to OASI at NRA), the annual COLA would be based on the chain-weighted version of the CPI-U.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
0.54 0.69 15% 16%
A9 For single/head-of-household/married-filing-separate taxpayers with modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) below $108,700 and for joint filers with MAGI below $217,400 for December 2025 ($85,000 and $170,000 multiplied by estimated CPI-U for 2018-2025), use the chain-weighted version of the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), beginning with the December 2025 COLA. For those beneficiaries whose MAGI is above these thresholds, provide no COLA. Use prior tax year income data for this determination. Use the chain-weighted CPI for the COLA for years prior to benefit receipt. Index the eligibility income threshold amounts to the CPI-U after December 2025.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016)
1.31 2.21 36% 51%
Category: Provisions Affecting Level of Monthly Benefits (PIA) (2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions)
Current law shortfall in long-range actuarial balance is 3.61 percent of payroll and in annual balance for the 75th year is 4.35 percent of payroll.
B1.1 Price indexing of PIA factors beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2030: Reduce factors so that initial benefits grow by inflation rather than by the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
2.87 7.51 80% 173%
B1.2 Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2030: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
1.58 4.16 44% 96%
B1.3 Progressive price indexing (40th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2030: Create a new bend point at the 40th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 40th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 40th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
1.35 3.55 37% 82%
B1.4 Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2030: Create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 50th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 50th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
1.11 2.79 31% 64%
B1.5 Progressive price indexing (60th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2030: Create a new bend point at the 60th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 60th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 60th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.84 1.89 23% 44%
B2.1 Beginning with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2033, multiply the PIA factors by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 for 2028 to the life expectancy at age 67 for the 4th year prior to the year of benefit eligibility. Unisex life expectancies, based on period life tables as computed by SSA's Office of the Chief Actuary, are used to determine the ratio. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center 2010) | memo (Bennett 2009)
0.57 1.68 16% 39%
B3.8 Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2030, create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers and gradually reduce all PIA factors except for the 90 percent factor. By 2063: a) the 32 percent PIA factor below the new bend point reduces to 30 percent; b) the 32 percent PIA factor above the new bend point reduces to 10 percent; and c) the 15 percent PIA factor reduces to 5 percent.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission 2010)
1.01 2.35 28% 54%
B3.9 Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2036, gradually reduce the 15 percent PIA factor in each year so that it reaches 10 percent for those newly eligible in 2065 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center 2010)
0.10 0.27 3% 6%
B3.10 Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2030, gradually increase the first PIA bend point in each year so that it is 15 percent higher for those newly eligible in 2044 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2019) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2017) | memo (Sanchez 2016) | memo (Sanders 2016) | memo (Schatz 2015) | memo (Sanders 2015) | memo (Harkin 2013) | memo (Harkin 2012)
-0.39 -0.69 -11% -16%
B3.11 Increase the first PIA factor from 90 percent to 93 percent for all beneficiaries eligible as of January 2025 and for those newly eligible for benefits after 2024.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen September 2019) | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen January 2019) | memo (Larson 2017) | memo (Larson 2015) | memo (Larson 2014)
-0.25 -0.26 -7% -6%
B3.12 Use an annualized "mini-PIA" formula beginning with retired workers newly eligible in 2030. For each indexed earnings year, compute an individual AIME and an individual PIA. Sum these individual PIAs for the 40 highest years of indexed earnings and divide that total amount by 37 to get the PIA for this provision. Phase-in over five years, meaning that in 2030, 80 percent of the benefit would be based on the old 35-year average PIA formula and 20 percent on the new mini-PIA formula, shifting by 20 percentage points each year until 100 percent is based on the new mini-PIA formula for those attaining age 62 in 2034. Disabled worker benefits are unchanged under this provision.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
0.20 0.31 6% 7%
B3.13 For retired worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2030 (excluding disabled workers), add a new bend point at the wage-indexed equivalent of the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution minus $100 (for 2015 eligibility) and change the PIA factors to 95/32/15/5. Also move the current-law first bend point from the wage-indexed equivalent of $1,115 in 2023 to $1,417 in 2023. Phase this provision in over 10 years (2030-2039). The phase-in would work on a weighted-average basis: 90% of CL formula + 10% of proposal formula for 2030, 80% of CL formula + 20% of proposal formula for 2031, and so on.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
0.10 0.20 3% 5%
B3.14 Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2025, reduce the 15 percent PIA factor by 2 percentage points per year so that it reaches 5 percent for those newly eligible in 2029 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ribble 2016)
0.37 0.55 10% 13%
B3.15 Increase the 90 percent PIA formula factor to 91 percent for beneficiaries newly eligible in 2028, 92 percent for those newly eligible in 2029, ..., reaching 95 percent for those newly eligible in 2032 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanchez 2016)
-0.29 -0.43 -8% -10%
B3.16 For retired worker and disabled worker beneficiaries becoming initially eligible in January 2030 or later, phase in a new benefit formula (from 2030 to 2039). Replace the existing two primary insurance amount (PIA) bend points with three new bend points as follows: (1) 25% AWI/12 from 2 years prior to initial eligibility; (2) 100% AWI/12 from 2 years prior to initial eligibility; and (3) 125% AWI/12 from 2 years prior to initial eligibility. The new PIA factors are 95%, 27.5%, 5% and 2%. During the phase in, those becoming newly eligible for benefits will receive an increasing portion of their benefits based on the new formula, reaching 100% of the new formula in 2039.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016)
1.00 1.72 28% 40%
B3.17 Increase the current-law first bend point by 22 percent and increase the 90 percent PIA factor to 95 percent for all beneficiaries eligible for benefits as of January 2024 and for those newly eligible for benefits after 2023. This provision will result in an approximate $257 increase in PIA for most workers newly eligible for retirement or disability benefits in 2024.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders 2023) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2022)
-1.49 -1.54 -41% -35%
B4.1 Increase the number of years used to calculate benefits for retirees and survivors (but not for disabled workers) from 35 to 38, phased in over the years 2024-2028.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.27 0.37 8% 9%
B4.2 Increase the number of years used to calculate benefits for retirees and survivors (but not for disabled workers) from 35 to 40, phased in over the years 2024-2032.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz 2011) | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.45 0.63 12% 15%
B4.3 For the OASI and DI computation of the PIA, gradually reduce the maximum number of drop-out years from 5 to 0, phased in over the years 2025-2033.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky 2008)
0.59 0.87 16% 20%
B4.4 Reduce the number of computation years (increase dropout years) for parents having a child in care under the age of 6. The parent must have no earnings (covered or non-covered) for the year to be eligible for the credit. Only one parent can claim the childcare added dropout year for a given earnings year. Each parent can earn at most 2 dropout years per child, and a maximum of 5 dropout years in total. The years designated as childcare years do not have to be the years that could otherwise be included in the computation of the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME). The provision would be effective for all benefits payable for entitlement in January 2025 and later (without regard for when the beneficiary became initially eligible).
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Murphy 2016)
-0.06 -0.06 -2% -1%
B4.5 For retired and disabled workers, reduce the maximum number of dropout years to 4 for workers newly eligible in 2025, to 3 for workers newly eligible in 2026, and to 2 for workers newly eligible in 2027 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ribble 2016)
0.36 0.50 10% 11%
B5.1 Increase the PIA to a level such that a worker with 30 years of earnings at the minimum wage level receives an adjusted PIA equal to 120 percent of the Federal poverty level for an aged individual. This provision takes full effect for all newly eligible OASDI workers in 2041, and is phased in for new eligibles in 2032 through 2040. The percentage increase in PIA is lowered proportionately for those with fewer than 30 years of earnings, down to no enhancement for workers with 20 or fewer years of earnings. (Year-of-work requirements are "scaled" for disabled workers based on their years of potential work from age 22 to benefit eligibility). The benefit enhancement percentage is reduced proportionately for workers with higher average indexed monthly earnings (AIME), down to no enhancement for those with AIME at least twice that of a 35-year steady minimum wage earner.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ryan 2010)
-0.00 -0.00 -0% -0%
B5.2 Beginning for those newly eligible in 2024, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined as a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to 125 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $1,416 in 2022). For those with under 30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is $1,416/20 = $70.80. (c) Index the initial PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders 2023) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2022) | memo (Lawson 2021) | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen September 2019) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2019) | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen January 2019) | memo (Lawson 2017) | memo (Larson 2017) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2017) | memo (Sanders 2016) | memo (Sanders 2015) | memo (Larson 2015) | memo (Larson 2014) | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
-0.17 -0.24 -5% -6%
B5.3 Beginning for those newly eligible in 2024, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined to be either a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned or a child is in care. Childcare years are granted to parents who have a child under 5, with a limit of 8 such years. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to 125 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $1,416 in 2022). For those with under 30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is $1,416/20 = $70.80. (c) Index the initial PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
-0.25 -0.34 -7% -8%
B5.4 Beginning for those newly eligible in 2030, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined as a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to 125 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $1,416 in 2022). For those with under 30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is $1,416/20 = $70.80. (c) From 2022 to the year of implementation, 2030, index the PIA per year of coverage using the chain-CPI index. Then, for later years, index the PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts. (d) Scale work requirements for disabled workers, based on the number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission 2010)
-0.13 -0.20 -3% -5%
B5.5 Beginning for those newly eligible in 2025, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined as a year in which either 20 percent of the "old law maximum" is earned or a child is in care. Childcare years are granted to parents who have a child under 6, with a limit of 8 such years. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to 133 percent of the Census monthly poverty level (about $1,556 in 2022). For those with under 30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 19 years is $1,556/11 = $141.40. (c) Index the initial PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts. (d) Scale work requirements for disabled workers, based on the number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center 2010)
-0.00 -0.01 -0% -0%
B5.6 Beginning for those newly eligible in 2024, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined to be either a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned or a child is in care. Childcare years are granted to parents who have a child under 6, with a limit of 5 such years. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to 100 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $1,215 in 2023). For those with under 30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is $1,215/20 = $60.75. (c) From 2023 to the year of implementation, 2024, index the PIA per year of coverage using the CPI index. Then, for later years, index the PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts. (d) Scale work requirements for disabled workers, based on the number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz 2011)
-0.09 -0.13 -3% -3%
B5.7 Beginning for those newly eligible in 2026, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) The number of years of work (YOWs) is determined as total quarters of coverage divided by 4, ignoring any fraction. Childcare years are granted to parents who have a child under 6, with a limit of 5 such years. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30+ YOWs equal to 100 percent of the monthly HHS poverty level for the year prior to eligibility. For workers between 11 and 29 YOWs, reduce the special minimum by 3 1/3 percentage points per YOW so that at 29 YOWs the minimum would be 96 2/3% of poverty, ..., down to 11 YOWs at 36 2/3% of poverty. No minimum for 10 or fewer YOWs.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Moore 2013)
-0.02 -0.01 -1% -0%
B5.8 Beginning in 2028, create a Basic Minimum Benefit (BMB) within Social Security (i.e., the cost of the BMB would be charged as a cost to the OASI Trust Fund), with the following specifications: (1) Eligibility for the BMB would be limited to OASI beneficiaries who have attained normal retirement age (NRA) or above. OASI beneficiaries under NRA would not be eligible for the BMB. (2) The BMB would be calculated on a household basis and split equally between members of the household. In the case of a married couple, both spouses would need to claim any Social Security benefits for which they are eligible before they could receive the BMB. If both spouses have claimed and one is NRA or above and the other has not yet attained NRA, only the half of the BMB for the spouse over NRA would be payable. (3) The BMB amount for single beneficiaries would be equal to either: 1) the BMB base ($604 in 2015) - 0.70 * current monthly OASI benefit (not including any BMB), if positive; or 2) zero. (4) The BMB amount for married beneficiaries would be equal to either: 1) the BMB base ($906 in 2015) - 0.70 * total household monthly OASI benefits (not including any BMB), if positive; or 2) zero. (5) The BMB bases for singles and couples would be updated annually for changes in the average wage index (AWI). (6) Single filers with Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) over $30,000 and joint filers with AGI (including taxable SS benefits) over $45,000 would be subject to clawback of the BMB through the income tax system. Any BMB would be reduced by one dollar for every dollar of income above the thresholds. (Thresholds, in 2015 dollars, would be indexed to chained CPI-U.) Clawbacks would be credited back to the OASI Trust Fund.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
-0.21 -0.24 -6% -6%
B5.9 Beginning for those newly eligible in 2025, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined as a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 40 years of coverage equal to 125 percent of the monthly Aged Federal poverty level (about $1,462 in 2022). For those with 20 or fewer years of coverage, phase up linearly from 0 percent of the poverty level for 10 years of coverage to 100 percent of the poverty level. For those having between 20 and 40 years of coverage, phase up linearly from 100 percent of the poverty level at 20 years of coverage to 125% of the poverty level for 40 or more years of coverage. (c) For newly eligible workers in 2025 and 2026, index the applicable poverty level using the CPI index, to the year prior to eligibility. Then, for newly eligible workers in 2027 and later, index the PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts. (d) Disabled workers have a somewhat similar minimum benefit, with work requirements scaled based on the number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ribble 2016)
-0.23 -0.36 -6% -8%
B5.10 Reconfigure the special minimum benefit, phased in for retired and disabled workers newly eligible from 2030 through 2039: (a) A year of work (YOW) coverage is equal to earnings at or above $10,875 in 2023 (reflecting a full-time worker earning the federal minimum wage), adjusted thereafter for wage growth. (b) At implementation, set the minimum PIA at zero percent of AWI for those with 10 or fewer YOWs to 15 percent of AWI for those with 15 YOWs, increasing linearly so that it reaches 19 percent for 19 YOWs. Then the minimum PIA would jump up to 25 percent of AWI for those with 20 YOWs, increasing linearly so that it equals 35 percent of AWI for those with 35 or more YOWs. (c) Use the AWI for two years prior to the year of initial eligibility in the minimum PIA calculation with COLA increase after the year of initial eligibility. (d) Scale the YOW requirements for disabled workers, based on the number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016)
-0.37 -0.63 -10% -14%
B5.11 Beginning for those newly eligible in 2024, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) The number of years of work (YOWs) is determined as total quarters of coverage divided by 4, ignoring any fraction. Childcare years are granted to parents who have a child under 6, with a limit of 5 such years. (b) For beneficiaries becoming newly eligible in 2024, set the initial special minimum benefit for 30+ YOWs equal to 100 percent of the monthly HHS poverty level for 2023. For beneficiaries becoming newly eligible after 2024, the initial special minimum benefit is indexed by the AWI. For workers between 11 and 29 YOWs, reduce the special minimum by 3 1/3 percentage points per YOW so that at 29 YOWs the minimum would be 96 2/3% of poverty, ..., down to 11 YOWs at 36 2/3% of poverty. No minimum for 10 or fewer YOWs.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Moore 2023) | memo (Moore 2022) | memo (Moore 2019)
-0.10 -0.14 -3% -3%
B6.1 Provide a 5 percent increase to the monthly benefit amount (MBA) of any beneficiary who is 85 or older at the beginning of 2024 or who reaches their 85th birthday after the beginning of 2024.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz 2011) | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
-0.13 -0.17 -4% -4%
B6.2 Provide the same dollar amount increase to the monthly benefit amount (MBA) of any beneficiary who is 85 or older at the beginning of 2024 or who reaches their 85th birthday after the beginning of 2024. The dollar amount of increase equals 5 percent of the average retired-worker MBA in the prior year.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
-0.13 -0.17 -4% -4%
B6.3 Provide an increase in the benefit level of any beneficiary who is 85 or older at the beginning of 2025 or who reaches their 85th birthday after the beginning of 2025. Increase the beneficiary's PIA based on an amount equal to the average retired-worker PIA at the end of 2024, or at the end of the year age 80 if later. Increase the beneficiary's PIA by 5 percent of this amount for those older than 85 at the beginning of 2025 and by 5 percent of this amount at age 85 for others, phased in at 1 percent per year for ages 81-85.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center 2010)
-0.16 -0.20 -4% -5%
B6.4 Starting in 2024, provide a 5 percent uniform benefit increase 24 years after initial benefit eligibility. Phase in the benefit increase at 1 percent per year from the 20th through 24th years after eligibility. For disabled workers, the eligibility age is the initial entitlement year to the benefit. The benefit increase is equal to 5 percent of the PIA of a worker assumed to have career-average earnings equal to SSA's average wage index. Auxiliary beneficiaries receive benefit enhancement based on the PIA of the governing worker.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ribble 2016) | memo (Fiscal Commission 2010)
-0.18 -0.23 -5% -5%
B6.5 Starting in 2026, provide a 5 percent uniform PIA increase 20 years after benefit eligibility. Phase in the PIA increase at 1 percent per year from the 16th through 20th years after eligibility. The full PIA increase is equal to 5 percent of the PIA of a worker assumed to have career-average earnings equal to the SSA average wage index. Auxiliary beneficiaries receive benefit enhancement based on the PIA of the governing worker.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Moore 2023) | memo (Moore 2022) | memo (Moore 2019) | memo (Moore 2013)
-0.27 -0.33 -8% -8%
B6.6 Starting in 2030, provide a uniform PIA increase in the 24th year of benefit eligibility. Phase in the PIA increase at 0.5 percent per year from the 15th through the 24th years of eligibility. The full PIA increase is equal to 5 percent of the average retired worker PIA in December of the 14th year of benefit eligibility. A similar additional PIA increase applies in the 43rd year of benefit eligibility (age 104), phased in from the 34th through the 43rd years of eligibility. For those past the 15th year of eligibility in 2029 (over age 76 for retirees), phase in the PIA enhancement over 10 years starting in 2030. Auxiliary beneficiaries receive benefit enhancement based on the PIA of the governing worker.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (FY 2014 Budget)
-0.23 -0.31 -6% -7%
B6.7 Starting in January 2030, provide an addition to monthly benefits for all beneficiaries who have been eligible for at least 20 years, with the following specifications: (1) Augment benefits (not the PIA) for those of qualifying age and eligibility duration with a MAGI below about $29,400 if single and $58,800 if married. MAGI is set to equal the IRMAA definition (AGI plus tax-exempt interest income). Index these thresholds after 2030 by the increase in the C-CPI-U; (2) The full additional amount is applicable for those born 1963 and later, once 24 years elapse from initial eligibility. The basic additional amount is calculated as 5 percent of the PIA for a hypothetical worker with earnings equal to the AWI each year; (3) For those born prior to 1963, the full additional amount is multiplied by the number of years they have been affected by the C-CPI-U, divided by 24; (4) Beneficiaries will receive 20 percent of their additional amount in their 20th year after initial eligibility, 40 percent in their 21st year after initial eligibility,..., and 100 percent of their additional amount in their 24th and later years after benefit eligibility; (5) Retired and disabled worker beneficiaries, dually entitled spouse beneficiaries, and all survivor beneficiaries received their addition as described above. Spousal beneficiaries (aged or with child in care) and child beneficiaries of a living retired or disabled worker receive 50 percent of the additional amount described above. Other beneficiary types (such as parents of deceased workers) will receive the percentage of the flat benefit that equals the percentage of the insured worker's PIA that they receive; (6) The AWI used is for the second year prior to the beneficiary's initial eligibility year, with applicable COLAs applied up to the age when the addition is received; and (7) The additional amount is added to the monthly benefit after reductions for early claiming or increases for delayed claiming have been applied.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016)
-0.06 -0.08 -2% -2%
B6.8 Starting in 2025, provide an additional monthly benefit equal to 1/12th of 2 percent of the AWI for the second prior year. This additional benefit would be available to those meeting any of the following four requirements: (a) Social Security beneficiaries who have attained age 82; (b) Social Security beneficiaries who have attained NRA and have both AIME at or below the first PIA bend point ($1,115 for 2023 initial eligibility) and at least 11 "years of coverage" as used for Windfall Elimination Provision purposes (earnings above $29,700 for 2023); (c) Individuals who have received Social Security benefits and/or SSI payments for at least 240 distinct months after attaining age 19; or (d) SSI recipients who have attained the Social Security NRA. This additional benefit would be paid out of the applicable Social Security OASI or DI Trust Fund for any month in which the individual is in receipt of a Social Security benefit; it would be paid out of the General Fund of the Treasury for any month in which the individual is in receipt of an SSI monthly payment but not a Social Security monthly benefit.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Wyden 2018)
-0.29 -0.36 -8% -8%
B7.2 Reduce benefits by 5 percent for those newly eligible for benefits in 2024 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.63 0.84 17% 19%
B7.3 Give credit to parents with a child under 6 for earnings for up to five years. The earnings credited for a childcare year equal one half of the SSA average wage index (about $33,074 in 2023). The credits are available for all past years to newly eligible retired-worker and disabled-worker beneficiaries starting in 2024. The 5 years are chosen to yield the largest increase in AIME.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
-0.23 -0.31 -6% -7%
B7.5 Increase benefits by 5 percent for all beneficiaries as of the beginning of 2024 and for those newly eligible for benefits after the beginning of 2024.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
-0.81 -0.83 -22% -19%
B7.7 Reduce individual Social Security benefits if modified adjusted gross income, or MAGI (AGI less taxable Social Security benefits plus nontaxable interest income) is above $60,000 for single taxpayers or $120,000 for taxpayers filing jointly. This provision is effective for individuals newly eligible for benefits in 2028 or later. The percentage reduction increases linearly up to 50 percent for single/joint filers with MAGI of $180,000/$360,000 or above. Index the MAGI thresholds for years after 2028, based on changes in the SSA average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz 2011)
0.54 0.73 15% 17%
B7.8 Replace the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO) with a revised reduction for most OASI benefits based on all earnings, beginning with beneficiaries newly eligible in 2030.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
0.08 0.12 2% 3%
B7.9 Beginning for newly eligible retired workers and spouses in 2030, all claimants who are married would receive a specified joint-and-survivor annuity benefit (i.e., surviving spouses would receive 75 percent of the decedents' benefits, in addition to their own) that would be payable if both were still alive. Initial benefits would be actuarially adjusted to keep the expected value of benefits equivalent to what would otherwise be current law.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
-0.00 -0.27 -0% -6%
B7.10 Replace the current-law WEP with a new calculation for most OASI and DI benefits based on covered and non-covered earnings, phased in for beneficiaries becoming newly eligible in 2030 through 2039. For this new approach, compute a PIA based on all past earnings (covered and non-covered), and multiply by the "non-covered earnings ratio." This ratio is equal to the current-law concept of the average indexed monthly earnings computed without non-covered earnings divided by a modified average indexed monthly earnings that includes both covered and non-covered earnings in agency records.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016)
0.05 0.08 1% 2%
B7.11 Beginning in January 2026, eliminate the retirement earnings test for all beneficiaries under normal retirement age, including retired workers, aged spouses, aged widow(er)s, young spouses with a child in care, young surviving spouses with a child in care, and children.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Walorski 2019) | memo (Johnson, Walorski 2017) | memo (Johnson 2016)
0.02 0.12 1% 3%
B7.12 Provide an option to split the 8-percent delayed retirement credit (DRC) to offer a lump sum benefit at initial entitlement equal to 2 percent of the 8 percent DRC earned, and a 6 percent DRC on subsequent monthly benefits, effective for workers newly entitled to retired worker benefits in 2026 and later. Widows are held harmless from the lump-sum decision.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Smith 2017) | memo (Johnson 2016)
-0.00 0.00 -0% 0%
B7.13 Eliminate the DI 5-month waiting period for disabled workers and disabled surviving spouses, and eliminate the 24-month Medicare (HI) waiting period for individuals who have become entitled to Social Security disability benefits. Effective with 2024 applications.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders 2018)
-0.10 -0.11 -3% -3%
B7.14 Eliminate completely the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO), effective 2024.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Davis, Spanberger 2022) | memo (Brown 2016)
-0.13 -0.12 -3% -3%
Category: Provisions Affecting Retirement Age (2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions)
Current law shortfall in long-range actuarial balance is 3.61 percent of payroll and in annual balance for the 75th year is 4.35 percent of payroll.
C1.1 Starting with those age 62 in 2024, increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 1 month every 2 years until the NRA reaches 68.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.43 0.69 12% 16%
C1.2 Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 2 months per year for those age 62 starting in 2024 and ending in 2029 (NRA reaches 68 for those age 62 in 2029).
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Liebman, MacGuineas, Samwick 2005)
0.53 0.69 15% 16%
C1.3 Starting for those age 62 in 2024, index the normal retirement age (NRA) to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ryan 2010) | memo (AARP 2008) | memo (Ryan 2008) | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.68 1.73 19% 40%
C1.4 Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 2 months per year for those age 62 starting in 2024 and ending in 2035 (NRA reaches 69 for those age 62 in 2035). Thereafter, increase the NRA 1 month every 2 years.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ribble 2016) | memo (Chaffetz 2011)
1.33 2.47 37% 57%
C1.6 Starting with those age 62 in 2024, increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 1 month every 2 years until the NRA reaches 69. Also increase the age up to which the delayed retirement credit may be earned at the same rate (from 70 to 72). No change to earliest eligibility age.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
0.64 1.31 18% 30%
C1.7 Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 3 months per year for those age 62 starting in 2024 and ending in 2031 (NRA reaches 69 for those age 62 in 2031). Increase the age up to which delayed retirement credits may be earned from 70 to 72 on the same schedule. Increase the widow(er) NRA in the same manner. The earliest eligibility age (EEA) for worker's and widow(er)'s benefit is unchanged.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016)
1.01 1.32 28% 30%
C2.1 Increase the earliest eligibility age (EEA) by 2 months per year for those age 62 starting in 2025 and ending in 2042 (EEA reaches 65 for those age 62 in 2042).
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (AARP 2008)
-0.10 -0.43 -3% -10%
C2.2 Starting for those age 62 in 2024, index the normal retirement age (NRA) to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, raise the earliest eligibility age (EEA) for retired-workers, aged widow(er)s, and disabled widow(er)s by the same amount as the NRA starting for those attaining 62 in 2024.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA 2010) | memo (Warshawsky 2008)
0.65 1.52 18% 35%
C2.3 Starting for those age 62 in 2024, index the normal retirement age (NRA) to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, increase the earliest eligibility age (EEA) by the same amount as the NRA starting for those age 62 in 2024 so as to maintain a 5 year difference between the two ages. Include a "hardship exemption" with no EEA/NRA change for a worker with 25 years of earnings (with 4 quarters of coverage each), and average indexed monthly earnings (AIME) less than 250 percent of the poverty level (wage-indexed from 2013). The hardship exemption is phased out for those with AIME above 400 percent of the poverty level.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission 2010)
0.49 1.17 14% 27%
C2.4 Starting for those age 62 in 2024, increase both the normal retirement age (NRA) and the earliest eligibility age (EEA) by 36/47 of a month per year until the NRA and EEA reach 70 and 65 respectively. For each year, the computed NRA and EEA round down to the next lower full month.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Lummis 2011)
0.89 1.80 25% 41%
C2.5 Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) 3 months per year for those age 62 starting in 2024 and ending in 2035 (NRA reaches 70 for those age 62 in 2035). Thereafter, index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, increase the earliest eligibility age (EEA) from 62 to 64 at the same time the NRA increases from 67 to 69; that is, for those attaining age 62 in 2024 through 2031. Keep EEA at 64 thereafter.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Graham, Paul, Lee 2011)
1.62 2.76 45% 63%
C2.6 Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) and the earliest eligibility age (EEA) for those age 62 in 2024-2025 to 68 and 63, respectively, and then by 3 months per year in 2026-2029 to 69 and 64, respectively.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Hutchison 2011)
0.91 1.08 25% 25%
C2.7 Increase the normal retirement age (NRA) and the earliest eligibility age (EEA) for those age 62 starting in 2024 by 3 months per year until EEA reaches 64 in 2031 and NRA reaches 69 in 2031.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Hutchison 2011)
0.87 1.08 24% 25%
C2.8 Starting in 2026, convert all disabled-worker beneficiaries to retired-worker status upon attainment of their earliest eligibility age (EEA) rather than their normal retirement age (NRA). After conversion, apply the early retirement reduction for retirement at EEA (currently 30 percent for those age 62 in 2026) phased in over 40 years.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky 2008)
0.40 0.70 11% 16%
Category: Provisions Affecting Family Member Benefits (2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions)
Current law shortfall in long-range actuarial balance is 3.61 percent of payroll and in annual balance for the 75th year is 4.35 percent of payroll.
D1 Beginning in 2024, continue benefits for children of disabled or deceased workers until age 22 if the child is in high school, college or vocational school.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders 2023) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2022) | memo (Lawson 2021) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2019) | memo (Lawson 2017) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016) | memo (Begich, Murray 2014) | memo (Moore 2013) | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
-0.05 -0.05 -1% -1%
D2 The current spouse benefit is based on 50 percent of the PIA of the other spouse. Reduce this percent each year by 1 percentage point beginning with newly eligible spouses in 2024, until the percent reaches 33 in 2040.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
0.09 0.13 3% 3%
D3 Allow divorced aged spouses and divorced surviving spouses married 5 to 9 years to get benefits based on the former spouse's account. Divorced aged and surviving spouses would receive 50% of the applicable current-law PIA percentage if married 5 years, 60% of the applicable PIA percentage if married 6 years, ..., 90% of the applicable PIA percentage if married 9 years. This benefit would be available to divorced spouses on the rolls at the beginning of 2025 and those becoming eligible after 2024.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Begich, Murray 2014)
-0.01 -0.01 -0% -0%
D4 Establish an alternative benefit for a surviving spouse. For the surviving spouse, the alternative benefit would equal 75 percent of the sum of the survivor's own worker benefit and the deceased worker's PIA (including any actuarial reductions or delayed retirement credits). If the deceased worker died before becoming entitled, use the age 62 actuarial reduction if deceased before age 62, or the applicable actuarial reduction/DRC for entitlement at the age of death if deceased after 62. The alternative benefit would not exceed the PIA of a hypothetical earner who earns the SSA average wage index (AWI) every year, and who becomes eligible for retired-worker benefits in the same year in which the deceased worker became entitled to worker benefits or died (if before entitlement). The alternative benefit would be paid only if more than the current-law benefit. This benefit would be available to surviving spouses on the rolls at the beginning of 2025 and those becoming eligible after 2024.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Lawson 2021) | memo (Lawson 2017) | memo (Begich, Murray 2014)
-0.10 -0.10 -3% -2%
D5 Limit the spousal benefit to that received by the spouse of the 75th percentile career-average worker, beginning with retired workers newly eligible in 2030. For future cohorts, this limit would be indexed for inflation annually using chain weighted CPI-U. The provision affects divorced spouses and young spouses (retired workers) but not spouses of disabled workers.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
0.08 0.15 2% 4%
D6 For spouses and children of retired and disabled workers becoming newly eligible beginning in 2030 and phased in for 2030 through 2039, limit their auxiliary benefit to one-half of the PIA for a hypothetical worker with earnings equal to the national average wage index (AWI) each year.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016)
0.07 0.12 2% 3%
D7 Beginning in January 2026, require full time school enrollment as a condition of eligibility for child benefits at age 15 up to 18.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016)
0.01 0.01 0% 0%
D8 Beginning in 2024, continue benefits for children of disabled, retired, or deceased workers until age 26 if the child is in high school, college or vocational school.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Moore 2023) | memo (Moore 2022) | memo (Moore 2019)
-0.07 -0.07 -2% -2%
D9 Provide for pro-rata benefit payment for the month of death of a beneficiary, rather than no payment for month of death. For situations where an auxiliary beneficiary is changed from one type of benefit to another upon the death of the worker, benefits for the month of the worker's death would be determined on a pro-rata basis. This provision would apply for deaths in 2024 or later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Deutch, Hirono 2022)
-0.03 -0.03 -1% -1%
Category: Provisions Affecting Payroll Taxes (2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions)
Current law shortfall in long-range actuarial balance is 3.61 percent of payroll and in annual balance for the 75th year is 4.35 percent of payroll.
E1.1 Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 16.2 percent in 2024 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
3.70 3.81 102% 88%
E1.2 Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 16.2 percent in 2034-2063, and to 20.0 percent in years 2064 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
4.49 7.51 125% 173%
E1.4 Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2029-2048, until the rate reaches 14.4 percent in 2048 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson 2014) | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
1.50 2.01 41% 46%
E1.8 Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2026-2031, until the rate reaches 13.0 percent for 2031 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Moore 2023) | memo (Moore 2022) | memo (Moore 2019) | memo (Moore 2013)
0.55 0.61 15% 14%
E1.9 Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2027-2050, until the rate reaches 14.8 percent in 2050 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen September 2019) | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen January 2019) | memo (Larson 2017)
1.79 2.41 50% 56%
E1.10 Increase the payroll tax rate by 0.1 percentage point per year for 2025 through 2034 so that it equals 13.4 percent for 2034 and later. The increase would be split evenly between the employer and employee share, and would be split between OASI and DI in proportion to currently scheduled payroll tax rates.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
0.89 1.01 25% 23%
E2.1 Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2024 and later, and apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to all earnings. Do not provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (DeFazio 2015) | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
2.54 2.60 70% 60%
E2.2 Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2024 and later, and apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to all earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
1.97 1.60 55% 37%
E2.4 Eliminate the taxable maximum for years 2030 and later (phased in 2024-2030), and apply full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate to all earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2023 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; (2) a new bend point equal to $9,360 in 2024, indexed by wages after 2024; and (3) formula factors of 3 percent and 0.25 percent below and above the new bend point, respectively.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Deutch, Hirono 2022) | memo (Deutch, Hirono 2019) | memo (Deutch, Hirono 2017) | memo (Deutch 2015) | memo (Deutch 2010)
2.37 2.49 66% 57%
E2.5 Apply 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2024, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders 2023) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2022) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2019) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2017) | memo (Sanders 2016) | memo (Sanders 2015) | memo (Sanders 2013) | memo (DeFazio 2011)
2.47 2.60 68% 60%
E2.11 Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2029 and later. Phase in elimination by taxing all earnings above the current-law taxable maximum at: 2.48 percent in 2025, 4.96 percent in 2026, and so on, up to 12.40 percent in 2029. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2024 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 5 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanchez 2016) | memo (Schatz 2015) | memo (Harkin 2013)
2.25 2.27 62% 52%
E2.12 Eliminate the taxable maximum in years 2035 and later. Phase in elimination by taxing all earnings above the current-law taxable maximum at: 1.24 percent in 2026, 2.48 percent in 2027, and so on, up to 12.40 percent in 2035. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum. Create a new bend point at the current-law taxable maximum with a 3 percent formula factor applying above the new bend point.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Moore 2023) | memo (Moore 2022) | memo (Moore 2019) | memo (Moore 2013)
2.05 2.22 57% 51%
E2.13 Apply OASDI 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000 starting in 2025, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2024 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 2 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen September 2019) | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen January 2019) | memo (Larson 2017) | memo (Larson 2015) | memo (Larson 2014)
2.18 2.47 60% 57%
E2.14 Apply OASDI 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2025, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2024 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 2 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Lawson 2021) | memo (Lawson 2017)
2.37 2.47 66% 57%
E2.15 Apply OASDI 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $300,000 starting in 2025, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $300,000. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2024 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 3 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Crist 2017)
2.28 2.40 63% 55%
E2.16 Apply OASDI 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2024, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Increase the computed level of the SSA average wage index for years after 2023 by amounts ranging from 0.6 percent for 2024 to 0.9 percent for 2034 and later. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2023 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 2 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Craig 2022)
2.33 2.40 65% 55%
E2.17 Apply 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $400,000 starting in 2024 and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Whitehouse, Boyle 2023)
2.26 2.60 63% 60%
E2.18 Apply the combined OASDI payroll tax rate on covered earnings above $400,000 paid in 2025 and later, and tax all covered earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $400,000. Increase the computed level of the AWI for years after 2024 by amounts ranging from 0.5 percent for 2025 to 0.9 percent for 2047 and later. Credit the additional earnings taxed for benefit purposes by: (a) calculating a second average indexed monthly earnings ("AIME+") reflecting only earnings taxed above the current-law taxable maximum, (b) applying a 1 percent factor on this newly computed "AIME+" to develop a second component of the PIA, and (c) adding this second component to the current-law PIA.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson 2023)
2.16 2.47 60% 57%
E3.1 Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings would be subject to the payroll tax (phased in 2024-2033). Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.69 0.40 19% 9%
E3.2 Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings would be subject to the payroll tax (phased in 2024-2033). Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Liebman, MacGuineas, Samwick 2005)
1.07 1.18 30% 27%
E3.5 Increase the taxable maximum each year by an additional 2 percent beginning in 2024 until taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center 2010) | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
0.59 0.45 16% 10%
E3.6 Increase the taxable maximum each year by an additional 2 percent beginning in 2026 until taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA 2010)
0.83 1.18 23% 27%
E3.7 Increase the taxable maximum by an additional 2 percent per year beginning in 2025 until taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings. Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable maximum. Create a new bend point equal to the current-law taxable maximum with a 5 percent formula factor applying above the new bend point.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission 2010)
0.66 0.76 18% 18%
E3.8 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $200,000 in 2017 (about $348,300 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Provide proportional benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, based on the payroll tax rate applied to the additional earnings divided by the full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan 2010) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates)
0.19 0.14 5% 3%
E3.9 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $200,000 in 2017 (about $348,300 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan 2010) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates)
0.26 0.30 7% 7%
E3.10 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $300,000 in 2017 (about $522,300 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Provide proportional benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, based on the payroll tax rate applied to the additional earnings divided by the full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan 2010) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates)
0.14 0.10 4% 2%
E3.11 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $300,000 in 2017 (about $522,300 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan 2010) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates)
0.19 0.22 5% 5%
E3.12 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $400,000 in 2017 (about $696,600 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Provide proportional benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, based on the payroll tax rate applied to the additional earnings divided by the full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan 2010) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates)
0.11 0.08 3% 2%
E3.13 Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $400,000 in 2017 (about $696,600 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Do not provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson, Brady, Ryan 2010) (includes similar provisions with 3 percent and 4 percent payroll tax rates)
0.16 0.18 4% 4%
E3.14 Eliminate the taxable maximum for the employer payroll tax (6.2 percent) beginning in 2024. For the employee payroll tax (6.2 percent) and for benefit credit purposes, beginning in 2024, increase the taxable maximum by an additional 2 percent per year until taxable earnings equal 90 percent of covered earnings.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance 2009)
1.46 1.19 40% 27%
E3.15 Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings are subject to the payroll tax (phased in 2024-2033). In addition, apply a tax rate of 6.2 percent for earnings above the revised taxable maximum (phased in from 2024-2033). Provide benefit credit for earnings taxed up to the revised taxable maximum.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Senate Special Committee on Aging 2010)
1.37 1.13 38% 26%
E3.16 Beginning in 2025, apply 4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above the wage-indexed equivalent of $400,000 in 2015 (about $589,500 in 2025), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2025. Provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings taxed only between 2015 wage-indexed equivalents of $400,000 and $500,000, or about $589,500 and $736,800 in 2025 (with thresholds wage-indexed after 2025); and (2) a formula factor of 2 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Begich, Murray 2014)
0.32 0.33 9% 8%
E3.17 Beginning in 2025, increase the taxable maximum by twice the rate of increase in the national Average Wage Index, but never by less than 3 percent. Provide benefit credit for earnings up to the revised taxable maximum levels.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Murphy 2016)
0.98 1.18 27% 27%
E3.18 Increase the taxable maximum linearly over 4 years to $279,900 for 2028. After 2028, index the taxable maximum to AWI plus 0.5 percentage point. Apply benefit credit on additional earnings taxed.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
0.55 0.48 15% 11%
E3.19 Increase the taxable maximum such that 90 percent of earnings would be subject to the payroll tax (phased in linearly from 2025-2030). Provide benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from additional annual earnings taxed over the current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 2.5 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ribble 2016)
1.02 1.05 28% 24%
Category: Provisions Affecting Coverage of Employment or Earnings, or Inclusion of Other Sources of Revenue (2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions)
Current law shortfall in long-range actuarial balance is 3.61 percent of payroll and in annual balance for the 75th year is 4.35 percent of payroll.
F1 Starting in 2024, cover newly hired State and local government employees.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission 2010) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center 2010) | memo (Warshawsky 2008) | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.14 -0.16 4% -4%
F2 Starting in 2024, exempt individuals with more than 180 quarters of coverage from the OASDI payroll tax. Earnings exempted from OASDI payroll tax would not be used in computing benefits.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky 2008)
-0.79 -1.00 -22% -23%
F3 Expand covered earnings to include employer and employee premiums for employer-sponsored group health insurance (ESI). Starting in 2027, phase out the OASDI payroll tax exclusion for ESI premiums. Set an exclusion level at the 75th percentile of premium distribution in 2027, with amounts above that subject to the payroll tax. Reduce the exclusion level each year by 10 percent of the 2027 exclusion level until fully eliminated in 2037.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center 2010)
1.13 0.77 31% 18%
F4 Expand covered earnings to include contributions to voluntary salary reduction plans (such as Cafeteria 125 plans and Flexible Spending Accounts). Starting in 2024, subject these contributions to the OASDI payroll tax, making the payroll tax treatment of these contributions like 401(k) contributions.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center 2010)
0.33 0.22 9% 5%
F6 Apply a separate 6.2 percent tax on investment income as defined in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), with unindexed thresholds as in the ACA ($200,000 for single filer, $250,000 for married filing jointly), starting in 2025. Proceeds go to the OASI and DI Trust Funds.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2019) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2017) | memo (Sanders 2016) | memo (Sanders 2015)
0.67 0.80 19% 18%
F7 For the estate tax, gift tax, and generation skipping transfer (GST) tax, return the respective exemption thresholds and tax rates to 2009 levels ($3.5 million threshold for estate tax with a top 45% tax rate) for deaths after 2023 and gifts made after 2023, with those levels not indexed in future years. All proceeds from the estate tax, gift tax, and GST tax would go to the OASI and DI Trust Funds.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Van Hollen 2019)
0.61 0.77 17% 18%
F8 For active S-corporation officers and limited partners, apply a 16.2 percent tax on investment income as defined in the ACA, with unindexed thresholds as in the ACA ($200,000 single filer, $250,000 for married filing joint), starting in 2024. Proceeds go to the OASDI Trust Funds for tax attributable to 12.4 percent of the total 16.2 percent tax rate.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders 2023) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2022)
0.93 1.01 26% 23%
F9 Apply a separate 12.4 percent tax on investment income as defined in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), with unindexed thresholds as in the ACA ($200,000 single filer, $250,000 for married filing joint), starting in 2025. Proceeds go to the OASDI Trust Funds.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Sanders 2023) | memo (Sanders, DeFazio 2022)
1.31 1.57 36% 36%
F10 Expand the tax on net investment income (NII) as defined in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to cover earnings from active S corporation holders and active limited partners. Apply a 12.4-percent tax on this expanded definition of NII, payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds with specified thresholds, effective for 2024 and later. The unindexed thresholds for this provision are $400,000 for a single filer and $500,000 for a married couple filing jointly. The NII tax would apply to the lesser of NII and the excess of modified adjusted income (MAGI) above the unindexed thresholds.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Whitehouse, Boyle 2023)
1.79 2.22 50% 51%
F11 Apply a separate 12.4-percent tax on net investment income (NII), as defined in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), payable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds with an unindexed threshold of $400,000, effective 2025 and later. The NII tax would apply to the lesser of NII and the excess of modified adjusted income (MAGI) above the unindexed threshold of $400,000. This single threshold would apply regardless of tax filing status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson 2023)
1.20 1.53 33% 35%
Category: Provisions Affecting Trust Fund Investment in Equities (2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions)
Current law shortfall in long-range actuarial balance is 3.61 percent of payroll and in annual balance for the 75th year is 4.35 percent of payroll.
G1 Invest 40 percent of the OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves in equities (phased in 2024-2038), assuming an ultimate 5.8 percent annual real rate of return on equities.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.47* 0.00 * 0%
G2 Invest 40 percent of the OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves in equities (phased in 2024-2038), assuming an ultimate 4.8 percent annual real rate of return on equities.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.35* 0.00 * 0%
G3 Invest 40 percent of the OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves in equities (phased in 2024-2038), assuming an ultimate 2.3 percent annual real rate of return on equities. Thus, the ultimate rate of return on equities is the same as that assumed for Trust Fund bonds.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board 2005)
0.00* 0.00 * 0%
G4 Invest 15 percent of the OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves in equities (phased in 2024-2033), assuming an ultimate 5.8 percent annual real rate of return on equities.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (AARP 2008)
0.19* 0.00 * 0%
G5 Invest 15 percent of the OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves in equities (phased in 2024-2033), assuming an ultimate 2.3 percent annual real rate of return on equities. Thus, the ultimate rate of return on equities is the same as that assumed for Trust Fund bonds.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (AARP 2008)
0.00* 0.00 * 0%
G6 Invest 25 percent of the OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves in equities (phased in 2026-2035), assuming an ultimate 5.8 percent annual real rate of return on equities.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson 2014)
0.30* 0.00 * 0%
G7 Invest 25 percent of the OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves in equities (phased in 2026-2035), assuming an ultimate 2.3 percent annual real rate of return on equities. Thus, the ultimate rate of return on equities is the same as that assumed for Trust Fund bonds.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson 2014)
0.00* 0.00 * 0%
* A change in the investment of trust fund reserves to include some equities affects the size of all summarized measures because increased "present-value" discounting reduces the weight on values for more distant future years. As a result, the magnitude of the current-law actuarial balance and the summarized effects of most proposals is reduced. Therefore, the size of the change in the long-range actuarial balance indicated here cannot be interpreted directly as a reduction in the shortfall. The actual reduction in the shortfall from equity investment depends on the amount of reserves that are available for investment throughout the period. For example, if provisions to change revenue or scheduled benefits resulted in a purely pay-as-you-go system (reserves just above zero throughout the period), then investment in equities would have no effect on the actuarial balance.
Category: Provisions Affecting Taxation of Benefits (2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions)
Current law shortfall in long-range actuarial balance is 3.61 percent of payroll and in annual balance for the 75th year is 4.35 percent of payroll.
H2 Starting in 2024, tax Social Security benefits in a manner similar to private pension income. Phase out the lower-income thresholds during 2024-2043.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky 2008)
0.20 0.16 5% 4%
H4 Increase the threshold for taxation of OASDI benefits to $50,000 for single filers and $100,000 for joint filers starting in 2025. Taxation of benefits revenues transferred to the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund would be the same as if the current-law computation applied.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson 2015) | memo (Larson 2014)
-0.09 -0.01 -3% -0%
H5 Beginning in 2030, for single/head-of-household/married-filing-separate taxpayers with MAGI of $250,000 or more and joint filers with MAGI of $500,000 or more, include up to the remaining 15 percent of Social Security benefits in taxable income (increased from up to 85 percent of benefits taxable under current law). In subsequent years, update these thresholds for growth in wages (AWI). Revenue from this provision would be credited to the Social Security trust funds. Current law taxation of up to 85 percent of Social Security benefits would remain unchanged.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center October 2016) | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center June 2016)
0.01 0.01 0% 0%
H6 Eliminate federal income taxation of OASDI benefits that is credited to the OASI and DI Trust Funds for 2054 and later. Phase out OASDI taxation of benefits by increasing relevant "income" thresholds from 2045 through 2053 as follows, for single/joint tax filers: (a) 2045 = $32,500/$65,000; (b) 2046 = $40,000/$80,000; (c) 2047 = $47,500/$95,000; (d) 2048 = $55,000/$110,000; (e) 2049 = $62,500/$125,000; (f) 2050 = $70,000/$140,000; (g) 2051 = $77,500/$155,000; (h) 2052 = $85,000/$170,000; and (i) 2053 = $92,500/$185,000. Taxation of benefits revenues for the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund would be maintained at the same level as if the current-law computation applied.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Johnson 2016)
-0.58 -1.04 -16% -24%
H7 Replace the current-law thresholds for federal income taxation of OASDI benefits with a single set of thresholds at $50,000 for single filers and $100,000 for joint filers for taxation of up to 85 percent of OASDI benefits, effective for tax year 2025. These thresholds would be fixed and not indexed to price inflation or average wage increase. Reallocate a portion of revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits to the HI Trust Fund such that the HI Trust Fund would be in the same position as if the current-law computation (in the absence of this provision) applied. The net amount of revenue from taxing OASDI benefits, after the allocation to HI, would be allocated to the combined Social Security Trust Fund.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen September 2019) | memo (Larson, Blumenthal, Van Hollen January 2019) | memo (Larson 2017)
-0.15 -0.01 -4% -0%